Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 280 undercard from Fight Island. With a new lightweight champion being crowned in the main event, the winner of Dariush and Gamrot will not need to wait long for their shot at the title — if there’s anything left of the winner, that is.
Gamrot has surged since joining the UFC, and his upwards mobility isn’t expected to end here as a -190 favorite, according to UFC odds. The blue-collar Dariush hopes to continue a long winning streak to a title shot, but he’ll have to do it as a +160 underdog.
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Dariush vs Gamrot fight odds
Dariush vs Gamrot method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Beneil Dariush | Mateusz Gamrot |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +850 | +500 |
| To win by Points | +300 | +150 |
| To win by Submission | +1,000 | +550 |
| Draw | OTB | OTB |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 19, 2022.
Dariush vs Gamrot picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dariush vs Gamrot betting preview
With UFC 280 featuring the crowning of a new lightweight champion in the main event, the packed card also features a bout pitting who may get the next crack at the title. Dariush hasn’t lost a fight in seven years, but it was his win over whatever was left of Tony Ferguson that put him on the division’s radar. Gamrot has demonstrated that he’s as real as it gets; something has to give between these title-minded battlers.
“Gamer” has an impressive record of 21-1 with 12 finishes and has ended three of his last four fights inside the distance. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and scores 4.83 takedowns per 15 minutes. There’s a lot Gamrot does well on offense and defense, which should help him limit Dariush’s ground game as he successfully stuffs 90% of takedown attempts.
Since the controversial loss to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut, Gamrot has been a savage operator as he manhandles opponents, leaving them crushed in his wake. In his last fight against Arman Tsarukyan, Gamrot went blow-for-blow against a big hitter with excellent wrestling skills by mainly avoiding the ground, edging him out in war.
Dariush hopes that the momentum from defeating a future hall-of-fame fighter carries over to what might be a tough matchup. The wrestle-minded Dariush makes his opponents one with the canvas and can mix it up on top as he lands 3.80 significant strikes per minute and scores 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. In his last two fights, Dariush scored eight takedowns and kept control for an average of 10 minutes.
Before Ferguson, he’d beaten everyone put in front of him and climbed up the rankings in style. With four finishes in his last seven fights, a stiffer resume compared to his opponent and being on the cusp of a title shot, it’s do-or-die for Dariush. Credit is due for him taking such a risky fight, but it’s winnable all the same.
With these two likely unable to take the other down, this comes down to conditioning and superior striking technique. We’ve seen Dariush troubled in the past against opponents who can bring the fight right to him and smother him with strikes, and we’ve also seen Gamrot struggle now that he’s reaching closer to the top. Oddsmakers seem to favor Gamrot’s striking and recent activity as opposed to Dariush’s established credentials.
Sterling vs Dillashaw tale of the tape
| Beneil Dariush | Mateusz Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 156 lbs | Weight | 156 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 70.5 inches |
| 21-4-1 (5 KO) | Record | 21-1-0 (1 NC, 7 KO) |
Dariush vs Gamrot UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Gamrot moneyline
If these two neutralize one another's ground game, Gamrot has shown better variety as a striker. Because Gamrot is so physically punishing with his strikes, Dariush has to get gutsy if he has any hopes of grinding him down, which isn’t how he normally operates.
It’s been 17 months since Dariush beat Ferguson, whereas Gamrot has remained consistent with his activity. That’s a long time to be waiting and is more troubling as he’s needed extra time to recover from an ankle injury. The fight itself is a tough ask, but coupling the long layoff and an injury that might hinder his movement, it doesn't bode well for him.
We expect a close fight despite what the odds indicate. However, we tend to agree that this should be Gamrot’s night as he finds the extra gear and ends Dariush’s impressive streak. We’re going with the “Gamer” to pull it off and score the biggest win of his career.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Pick
With his apparent advantage in power and busy striking, Gamrot could present Dariush with all sorts of problems if he shuts down his takedown game. Though he might be outgunned up top, Dariush isn’t helpless if he has to resort to a conventional striking battle. This fight could be over in a flash, but can just as likely go the distance.
We’re going to bank on Gamrot showing out and putting together a devastating performance at Dariush’s expense. Dariush should be savvy enough to avoid any reckless exchanges, but his questionable chin won’t hold up against a fighter with considerable striking power. Expect it to be game over for Dariush in Round 2 at +1,100.
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+1,100 at DraftKings)
