Valentina Shevchenko defends her flyweight title against Alexa Grasso in the co-main event of UFC 285 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night.
Shevchenko is looking to extend her long reign after a shaky title defense, and Grasso hopes to usher in a new era at the champion’s expense.
UFC betting odds have Shevchenko a sizable -675 favorite. Grasso has won four fights in a row, but is still a +500 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Shevchenko vs. Grasso at UFC 285 in Las Vegas.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso fight odds
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Valentina Shevchenko | Alexa Grasso |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +230 | +1200 |
| To win by Points | +200 | +850 |
| To win by Submission | +260 | +1600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 2, 2023.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso betting preview
Is Valentina Shevchenko the next great on the verge of a huge defeat? It does seem a bigger possibility than ever following her controversial split decision win over Talia Santos at UFC 275. The champion has a lot to answer for here, and Grasso has earned every right to try and knock her off her perch.
Shevchenko needed to rally late to turn the tide against Santos. The win was the seventh successful defense of her title, but it left her looking more vulnerable than ever. Santos’ size prevented Shevchenko from attaining her usual success on the ground, but her striking game wore her challenger down late.
This might be an easier matchup for “Bullet.” Shevchenko lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy while scoring 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at 64% accuracy. Fifteen of her 23 wins have been finished inside the distance, and she has an average fight time of 17 minutes and 20 seconds.
Alexa Grasso has won her last four after going 3-3 in her previous six fights. The former Invicta FC standout throws a lot of strikes and has incredible conditioning, making her hard to slow down if she can establish an offensive rhythm. Her shot at Shevchenko has been earned with impressive wins over the likes of Maycee Barber and Viviane Araujo.
Guadalajara’s Grasso seems to have hit her stride since moving up to flyweight. She’ll be bringing her signature pressure as she lands 5.14 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy. Grasso doesn’t do much work on the ground, landing 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. She only has five victories inside the distance, and an average fight time of 13 minutes and 40 seconds.
This could be a trap fight for Shevchenko. Grasso is a relentless striker who could outwork her if she can’t get taken to the ground. Then again, Shevchenko won’t have to concede a size disadvantage, and could shine with an opponent willing to come right at her.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso tale of the tape
| Valentina Shevchenko | Alexa Grasso | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125.5 lbs |
| 66.5 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 23-3 (8 KO) | Record | 15-3 (4 KO) |
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Shevchenko ML
We can’t assume Shevchenko is slipping just yet, so Grasso needs to be at her best and then some to end her reign. One troublesome thing is that Grasso gets hit a lot. She also gets taken down quite often, having hit the canvas nine times in her last five fights. If she can’t tighten up her defense, “Bullet” will mow her down.
Santos’ success could have been a combination of an off-night and a bad style match, but Grasso is not likely to present those dimensions. Grasso wouldn’t dare test her mettle on the ground against Shevchenko, though she’ll be outmatched in the stand-up as it is.
This should be a return to form for Shevchenko, who will look reinvigorated after her wake-up call and dominate a worthy challenger. The call here is for Shevchenko to win.
Prediction: Shevchenko ML (-675 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ or decision
Four of Shevchenko’s last five fights have gone over three rounds, and four of Grasso’s last five have gone the three or five-round distance.
While Shevchenko should bounce back after the near-miss against Soto, Grasso is tough enough to go the rounds. As Shevchenko is a huge favorite, value bets are hard to come by.
That being the case, Shevchenko on the double chance of a KO or decision is our best bet at -200.
Pick: Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ or decision (-200 at DraftKings)
