UFC 301 Craig vs Borralho Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Back the Underdog Saturday

Paul Craig is taking on Caio "The Natural" Borralho in the first fight on tonight's main card for UFC 301 betting.

There's only one spot separating these two in the middleweight rankings, with Borralho at No. 14 and Craig at No. 13. However, there's a massive gulf on the UFC odds board with "the Natural" coming in as a -550 favorite and Craig at +370. 

With such lopsided odds, I let you know the best angle to bet with my Craig vs. Borralho picks and predictions for May 4.

Craig vs Borralho prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Craig ML (+375 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Under 2.5 rounds (-140 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Caio Borralho is riding a 13-fight winning streak and is 5-0 in the UFC. However, he still doesn't have a victory against a ranked opponent, and this line looks too wide against a veteran like Paul Craig.

Craig has dropped three of his last four bouts, but this is a guy with 17 fights in the promotion and has shown the ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Craig has picked up upset wins against Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov, and most recently, Andre Muniz when he knocked him out in his middleweight debut last summer. 

Craig is a plodder with sloppy striking and poor offensive wrestling; however, he's massive for this division and is extremely dangerous off his back. 

We've seen Borralho get into extended grappling exchanges with Michal Oleksiejczuk, Armen Petrosyan, Makhmud Muradov, and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. While Borralho's grappling and control were on another level than those guys, he'll be playing with fire if he utilizes that game plan against a BJJ specialist like Craig.

Borralho's superior athleticism and more well-rounded skillset should make him the favorite but not at -475. This is a dog or pass spot if you're looking at the moneyline. 

Best best analysis

Borralho hasn't been much of a finisher lately, with seven of his last nine fights going to the judges' cards. That said, he knocked down Abus Magomedov in his last fight and had multiple submission attempts against Oleksiejczuk and Muradov in his previous two bouts. The Natural has power in his hands and a strong submission game, while Craig is a glass cannon. 

Craig has been subbed twice and knocked out four times in the UFC, and his chin could be even more compromised now that he's cutting to 185 pounds. However, he also has a 100% finish rate himself, with all 17 of his career wins coming inside the distance (four by KO/TKO and 13 via submission).

If Craig is able to pull off the upset, he'll need to do so by stoppage, and if he doesn't turn the tide there's a good chance he'll get finished early himself. 

Craig vs Borralho odds

Method of Victory	Craig	Borralho
To win outright	+370	-550
To win by KO/TKO	+1,000	+210
To win by points	+1,100	+215
To win by submission	+1,000	+200
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as 5-4-2024.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Craig vs Borralho tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic