UFC 302 Holland vs Oleksiejczuk Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Welcome to Submission City

Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a featured attraction on tonight's UFC 302 undercard and one of our select events for UFC betting. 

Holland and Oleksiejczuk are two notoriously vicious finishers in dire need of a win, though Holland’s ground game might carry him to victory.

UFC odds have Williams a -275 favorite, with Oleksiejczuk coming back at +210. Here are my best free UFC 302 picks and Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk predictions from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on June 1.

Holland vs Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Holland moneyline (-275 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Holland to win by submission (+265 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The writing is on the wall for Holland after dropping a decision to UFC debutant Michael Page in his last fight. As strong and explosive as Holland is, he’s not built to tangle with the welterweight elite as previously hoped and is instead settling in as a truthmaker for the divisions’ true elite. Now that the welterweight experiment has run its course, he’s returning to middleweight hoping that he injects some life into his career and doesn’t drop his third winnable fight in a row.

Oleksiejczuk has fought as high as a light heavyweight and keeps climbing down the ladder without much success. He was submitted by Michel Pereira in his last fight, dropping to 3-2 in his last five, with both losses coming by submission. He’s a good striker with bad takedown defense, and he tends to end his fights rather quickly with an average fight time of six minutes and eleven seconds. Most of his opponents haven’t been up to snuff in handling his offense, but those who have can tangle him up and submit him. 

Holland is similarly explosive, but he has shown his grappling and submission chops, failing only against technically gifted strikers in his recent run. He is also longer and more athletic than Oleksiejczuk and also matches up poorly against grapplers, but he won’t have to worry about that in this bout. However, he’s not the middleweight sucked down to welterweight with a size advantage anymore. 

On paper, Holland evens out Oleksiejczuk in striking prowess and has the better submission game, therefore he is the pick. He has a seven-inch reach advantage that his opponent isn’t savvy enough to navigate around, and should win if he just maintains the distance advantage. However, Holland is prone to making dumb decisions that have put him in this position where he is essentially one loss away from being considered a journeyman. 

The call here is that Holland puts it together against a foe tailormade to succumb to his skill set and breaks his two-fight skid with a win.

Best best analysis

Oleksiejczuk is going to go right for Holland, and it’ll be at that moment when Holland will decide the kind of fighter he wants to be. Too often, Holland tries to focus on entertaining the fans, which doesn’t always work for him at the end of a fight. Add in the fact that he isn’t facing a technically sound striker or someone with decent grappling skills, and this all makes it an extremely favorable fight for him. 

More than ever, Holland needs to fight smart and focused, particularly because he has an opponent with kill-shot power and will be hard to handle if he gets comfortable. We’ve seen Holland try and evolve his ground game, and he does have capable submission skills, so this is a great opportunity to demonstrate the extent of his skills.  

If Oleksiejczuk gets backed up, the threat of his striking power will decrease significantly. I’m expecting a few early exchanges to determine how this fight will play out, and for Holland to get the better of those trades as he inches his opponent close to the edge of the cage to limit his mobility. Because Oleksiejczuk can get hit and practically drowns once he hits the mat, Holland will get his chance for a finish as the fight progresses to the later rounds.

My best bet for the fight is Holland putting in the work and winning this one by submission.

Holland vs Oleksiejczuk odds

Method of Victory	Holland	Oleksiejczuk
To win outright	-280	+215
To win by KO/TKO	+200	+350
To win by points	+320	+950
To win by submission	+260	+3,500
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-1.

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Holland vs Oleksiejczuk tale of the tape

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