UFC 302 Makhachev vs Poirier Odds, Picks, and Predictions: The Champ Remains the Champ

Islam Makhachev will put his lightweight belt on the line against Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302 betting tonight. Poirier is fresh off an upset victory but will be an underdog once again with Makhachev making his third title defense as a -550 favorite.

Can Poirier beat the UFC odds again, or will Makhachev continue his reign as the promotion's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter? I let you know with my best free UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier picks and predictions for Saturday, June 1.

Makhachev vs Poirier prediction and pick

• Prediction
  Makhachev ML (-550 at BET99)
  
  
• Best bet
  Makhachev by submission (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Makhachev is coming off a spectacular first-round knockout win against Alexander Volkanovski last October. That put to bed any notions Volk was his equal after a close decision victory against him earlier in the year.

Makhachev has now won 13 fights in a row (the fourth-longest streak in UFC history), and that first bout with Volkanovski was the only close one, with the Dagestani dominating every other foe — including former champ Charles Oliveira in 2022.

Poirier is the former interim champ and has long been a contender, but he hasn't been quite as dominant. He's 5-3 in his last eight fights, but three of those victories were very competitive. In his last bout, he knocked out Benoit Saint Denis in the second round as a +170 underdog.

However, he struggled against Saint Denis in the opening round and was fortunate the less experienced fighter gassed out and left his chin in the air in the pocket during the second frame. Makhachev has much better cardio and striking defense than BSD, and he won't leave himself open in exchanges. 

The champ has shown much improved striking over the last few years, and his wrestling and grappling are levels above his opponent. Poirier was out of his depth when he challenged Khabib Nurmagomedov for the belt five years ago, and an older version of Diamond will get rolled by Khabib's protege this weekend. 

Best best analysis

Makhachev might have starched Volkanovski last fall, but it was a bit of a weird situation with Volk taking the fight on just seven days notice. With a full camp and a resume that has seen him face several elite strikers, Poirier will be tougher to knock out, but he can be vulnerable in the grappling department, which is where Makhachev excels. 

Poirier was taken down three times by Saint Denis and Michael Chandler, while getting taken down four times by a subpar wrestler in Dan Hooker. Against those fighters, he was able to reverse position and attempt submissions of his own, but he won't be able to do that against Makhachev, who has dominant top, side, and wrist control. 

We saw Poirier almost get caught in a submission by Saint Denis while both Nurmagomedov and Oliveira were able to sink in rear-naked chokes in the third round. Makhachev has won by submission in four of his last seven fights and with his relentless chain wrestling, expect him to win with that method again. 

Makhachev vs Poirier odds

Method of Victory	Makhachev	Poirier
To win outright	-575	+400
To win by KO/TKO	+275	+800
To win by points	+375	+1,500
To win by submission	+100	+2,250
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-1.

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Makhachev vs Poirier tale of the tape

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