UFC 302 Strickland vs Costa Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Sean Walks Out Victorious

Sean Strickland faces off against Paulo Costa in the co-main event for UFC 302 betting tonight. Not only are these fighters two of the most entertaining trash-talkers in MMA, but they're also highly-ranked middleweights who always put on a show in the octagon. 

UFC odds have the former champ Strickland as a -220 favorite, with Costa coming back at +185. Here are my best free Strickland vs. Costa predictions for Saturday, June 1 from the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

Strickland vs Costa prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Strickland ML (-220 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Strickland by points (+180 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Costa has just one win (against an unranked Luke Rockhold) in the last four years, so it's a bit surprising to see him still ranked as the No. 7 middleweight contender.

Sure, he has explosive power in his punches and kicks, but he hasn't won by knockout since 2018, and he doesn't have any other paths to victory here. This is a guy with poor fight IQ, and his preparation and mentality can be baffling, like when he casually showed up 25 pounds overweight for a bout with Marvin Vettori in 2021.

Strickland also has a brash personality and caters to his fans on social media, but he can actually back it up. While he's coming off a loss to current champ Dricus du Plessis, it was a close split decision, and he had a 173-137 edge in significant strikes.

Since moving up to middleweight in 2020, Strickland has gone 8-3, and two of those losses were close split decisions to guys ranked in the Top 5 of the division. While he was flatlined by Alex Pereira, Pereira is one of the hardest hitters in MMA history, and Strickland has generally displayed effective striking defense and good durability.

In Costa's last fight, he rocked Robert Whittaker with a spinning kick in the opening round but faded in the next two rounds and lost. Strickland also has the ability to weather Costa's power in the early going and then take over in the later rounds with his cardio. Expect Strickland's volume, superior gas tank, and experience in five-round fights to lead to a victory here.

Best best analysis

Strickland's lowest method to win odds is his KO/TKO prop (+120) which is a bit surprising since five of his last six wins have come by points. His lone knockout win during that span came against an unranked Abus Magomedov, and Costa is far more durable.

Costa's chin has been tested by Yoel Romero, so he should be able to eat shots from Strickland, who doesn't have death-touch power. Costa's only knockout loss came against Israel Adesanya when he recklessly charged the counter-striker, and he won't need to do that against Strickland, who should stay in his face.

Despite his crisp boxing and pressure, Strickland tends to win by decision against tough opponents — and that should be the case again on Saturday. 

Strickland vs Costa odds

Method of Victory	Strickland	Costa
To win outright	-220	+185
To win by KO/TKO	+120	+365
To win by points	+180	+1,100
To win by submission	+1,700	+3,000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-29.

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Strickland vs Costa tale of the tape

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