UFC 303 Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Page Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Scary Garry

The UFC 303 main card in Las Vegas features a welterweight bout between No. 7-ranked contender Ian Garry and No. 14 Michael Page. These two potential title contenders will kick off tonight’s main card.

UFC odds have Garry as a moderate betting favorite at -150, while Page returns at +120. Here are my free betting picks for Garry vs. Page on June 29.

Garry vs Page prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Garry moneyline (-150 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Garry by decision (+160 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Ian Machado Garry deals with a lot of out-of-octagon drama that has led to a diminished reputation within the (online) MMA community. For the sake of this article, I am not going to get into that drama other than I believe it is clouding the fact that Garry is still one of the biggest and fastest rising prospects at 170 pounds.

Whatever you want to say about Garry, you can’t say that he is not a legit title contender. The guy is 14-0 in his professional career and already boasts seven wins in the UFC at just 26 years old.

He has beaten some big names along the way, including Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. Both of those wins came by decision, a trend I expect to continue at UFC 303.

Best best analysis

Instead of laying -150 on Garry’s moneyline, I think there is more value in backing him to win by decision at +160. Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance, with the “Fight goes to decision” prop listed at -160.

Oddsmakers also suggest that Garry by decision is his most likely path to victory, given that his knockout prop is listed at +440 and his submission prop is listed at +850. These price discrepancies make sense given that it is nearly impossible to finish Michael Page.

He has been knocked out just once through 24 professional fights. Page has also never been submitted across that stretch.

So, if we are going the distance, who has the edge? I give it to Garry.

His 10-year age gap will bode well for him in the later rounds. Furthermore, Garry does an excellent job at “getting in and getting out.” What that means is that he picks his moment to get inside the pocket, land a strike, and immediately jump back to distance before his opponent can counter. It can lead to disastrously boring fights (like his last win over Neal), but it also leads to simple scoring on the scorecards as he attempts to coast to a decision victory.

While Page is also coming off a decision victory over Kevin Holland, he took advantage of something that Holland does that Garry won’t. Holland loves to just rush the pocket with reckless abandonment and go for chaos.

This allowed Page to land a lot of good counter strikes that looked great to the judges and fans alike. However, Garry fights in the polar-opposite fashion.

Page carries a ton of violence within his striking, but it is flawed and Garry fights safe. If Page is unable to land devastating shots, I think he will be in for a frustrating night as Garry dances around the cage, utilizes his stamina advantage and gets by with his third straight decision victory.

Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Page odds

Method of Victory	Garry	Page
To win outright	-160	+125
To win by KO/TKO	+440	+440
To win by points	+150	+255
To win by submission	+850	+3,500
Draw	+2,900	+2,900

Odds as of 6-29.

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Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Page tale of the tape

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