UFC 303 Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Same Result, Different Day

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka face off for the light heavyweight championship in the main event for UFC 303 betting tonight.

They also fought for the vacant title last November with Pereira knocking out Prochazka to claim the belt. Some viewed that result as an early stoppage so a rematch makes sense and with Conor McGregor withdrawing from UFC 303, these two stepped in on short notice to headline the event. 

UFC odds have Pereira as a -150 favorite with Prochazka coming back at +125. Here are my best free UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 picks and predictions for June 29.

Pereira vs Prochazka prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pereira ML (-130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pereira by KO/TKO (+115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

When these guys clashed last year, Pereira stunned Prochazka with a counter left hook before finishing him with a flurry of brutal elbows in the second round. I don't see the rematch going much differently, especially given Prochazka's style. 

Prochazka has underrated grappling ability but he wasn't able to impose his wrestling on Pereira in their first fight. While Prochazka is blazing fast, with powerful strikes that he can throw from various angles, he's also a bit wild and hittable.

In particular, he doesn't do much to check leg kicks which we saw in his last fight against Aleksandr Rakic and his first tilt with Pereira. He also tends to rely on his chin to tank shots which is a terrible idea against someone who hits as hard and as accurately as Pereira.

Pereira is also the former UFC middleweight champ and was a two-division champion kickboxer in Glory as well. Not only is he one of the most powerful strikers to ever set foot in the octagon, but he's also highly technical and precise. Expect Pereira to reduce Prochazka's mobility with leg kicks before catching him with heavy shots to retain the belt.

Best best analysis

With two knockout specialists who love to stand and strike, this fight isn't going 25 minutes. That gives us plenty of value in backing Pereira to win by KO/TKO at plus money.

Keep in mind that eight of Pereira's 10 career wins have come by way of KO/TKO and the two that didn't were 15-minute bouts where his opponents spammed takedown attempts. Instead of backing Pereira to win on the ML at -145, take him to win by KO/TKO at a much better price of +110. 

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka odds

Method of Victory	Pereira	Prochazka
To win outright	-150	+125
To win by KO/TKO	+105	+225
To win by points	+625	+875
To win by submission	+2,100	+950
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-29.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic