UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad is the headline event for UFC 304 betting this Saturday in Manchester, England. 

These guys have two of the longest winning streaks in the promotion, with the welterweight champion Edwards entering on a 12-fight win streak and Muhammad finally getting his title shot after nine victories in a row. Edwards is expected to retain his belt with UFC odds installing him as a -250 favorite with Muhammad the underdog at +205. 

Here are my best UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 predictions for July 27. 

Edwards vs Muhammad prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Leon Edwards moneyline (-250 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Leon Edwards by decision (+125 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This is a rematch from a 2021 bout which ended in an accidental eye poke but there's a lot more at stake this time around, with Leon Edwards making his third title defense against the No. 2 welterweight challenger in Belal Muhammad. 

That first fight ended early in the second round but Edwards was piecing up Muhammad in the opening frame. Edwards' striking was too fast and accurate for Muhammad to handle and I don't see that being any different this time around. 

The only path Muhammad has to win will be by getting takedowns and using control in the clinch and against the cage. However, Muhammad's takedown accuracy sits at just 35% and Edwards has shown terrific defensive wrestling in his last two fights.

He stuffed Colby Covington on eight of 10 attempts in his last fight in December and made former champ Kamaru Usman go 4-for-15 on takedowns in Edwards' first title defense in March 2023.

If Edwards was able to survive their elite grappling, he should be able to do the same to a fighter that doesn't have Usman's strength or Covington's relentless chain-wrestling. Expect Edwards to stuff most takedowns and use his get-up ability to keep this fight standing up where he can use his superior striking to pick Muhammad apart.

Best best analysis

A big reason why Muhammad has waited so long for a title shot is that he's a decision machine with little finishing ability. Twelve of his last 14 fights have gone the distance and his boring but stifling wrestling style should enable him to go 25 minutes against Edwards.

While Edwards pulled off a highlight reel head-kick to starch Usman for the belt in 2022, that came at the end of the fifth round and is his only stoppage victory in his last seven bouts. Edwards is very crisp and technical with his striking but he doesn't have a ton of power which should lead to him winning on points.

Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad odds

Method of Victory	Leon Edwards	Belal Muhammad
To win outright	-245	+200
To win by KO/TKO	+255	+850
To win by decision	+125	+350
To win by submission	+1,150	+2,400
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-25.

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Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad tale of the tape

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