UFC 304: Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett Odds, Picks & Predictions

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett serves as one of our featured attractions on the UFC 304 undercard on Saturday, July 27.

Green is the next veteran challenger to face emerging talent Pimblett, and a close fight between these two strikers could go either way.

UFC odds have Green a -120 favorite and Pimblett a +100 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett predictions from Co-op Live in Manchester, England.

Green vs Pimblett prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pimblett moneyline (+100 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-175 at BET99)

Fight analysis

There is a concentrated effort in the UFC to make Paddy Pimblett a thing. The controversial decision win over Jared Gordon is still fresh in fans minds, and he disappointed again after going the distance with a badly faded Tony Ferguson at UFC 296. Though he’s getting matched up in hopes that he can impress against a stylistically friendly veteran in Bobby King Green, this might be a miscalculation as the promotion tries to leverage the hometown fighter’s ability to draw ticket sales.

Green is remarkably tough to take down and is still one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. He doesn’t have knockout power but he has fast hands and good defense, along with excellent conditioning and a technique that has kept him as one of the most consistent contenders in the division. 

That said, Green is moving further away from his prime with each passing fight. While he can still beat up the likes of Jim Miller and spark out chinless fighters like Grant Dawson, the brutal knockouts he suffered at the hands of Drew Dober and Jalin Turner weren’t that long ago. While Pimblett is nowhere near as big or refined of a striker as those two, he’s good enough to keep pace with Green and potentially score a big shot that opens up his wrestling to stymie Green’s activity.

This is a risky fight for Pimblett, but the pressure is on Green to put on a dominating performance. If Pimblett can keep up with Green, he’ll land the heavier shots and might get the benefit of the doubt in the close rounds thanks to a boisterous crowd behind him. I’m slightly leaning towards Pimblett while he’s still an underdog.

Best best analysis

Unless Pimblett lands something huge in the early goings, Green will be a tough customer for the duration of the fight. With Pimblett not showing the explosive power we’ve seen among the fighters who have put Green out, he’ll resort to clinching and distance fighting to avoid getting caught up in Green’s unorthodox style.

If it comes down to it, I don’t feel that Green can overwhelm or put enough shots on Pimblett to win the fight. It could go either way, and Pimblett isn't getting an easy win, but the best bet I have is that it goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett odds

Method of Victory	Bobby Green	Paddy Pimblett
To win outright	-120	+100
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+600
To win by decision	+160	+300
To win by submission	+1,800	+425
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-25.

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Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett tale of the tape

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