UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape Odds, Picks & Predictions

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape serves as one of the featured attractions on the UFC 304 early prelims taking place on July 27.

The undefeated Mokaev wants his shot at the flyweight title, but he’ll have his hands full against a fellow title hopeful in Kape.

UFC odds have Mokaev a -145 favorite and Kape a +125 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 304: Mokaev vs. Kape predictions from Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.

Mokaev vs Kape prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Mokaev ML (-145 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Mokaev ML (-145 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Much has been made of Muhammad Mokaev’s grappling prowess — and rightfully so. He’s a tremendous wrestler with great submission skills, which has carried him to an undefeated start to his career. His weapon is the grind, and his suffocating grappling, paired with his aggressive submissions, makes him a nightmare on the ground. However, this is a difficult test for the Dagestani.

Kape is an excellent, athletic striker and stuffs 78% of takedown attempts. While there are doubts about his conditioning, he has a high work rate and has won four straight bouts. Kape has a distinct striking advantage over Mokaev, but he’ll have to be the more careful of the two because if he hits the ground, he’ll be tremendously drained should he get back up.

This fight comes down to how willing Kape is to take chances at the risk of Mokaev taking him down. We’ve seen Mokaev wrestle all hope out of his opponents, and he's defensively sound up top to the point where he could manage to hang with Kape and take some shots. We’ve seen Kape get taken down and gassed by lesser grapplers than Mokaev, and I don’t see him landing enough big shots to discern Mokaev from his usual approach. 

The takedowns seem inevitable, and Mokaev will dish out his heavy shots on an immobile Kape and win the rest of the fight with pure ground control. There’s a chance Kape can make it interesting early on, but Mokaev will find a way to drag him down and come out with a win.

Best best analysis

Kape has been submitted twice in six defeats, but his durability isn’t questioned. Mokaev is coming off a decision win over Alex Perez that stopped a three-fight submission streak. Both fighters average over 11 minutes of fight time each time they enter the octagon, so it’s unlikely we’ll see this end early unless something unexpected happens.

Being that we’ve seen Kape get dragged down by the likes of David Dvorak and Alexandre Pantoja, I can’t see him fending off Mokaev for a whole 15 minutes. The best line for the fight is Moakev straight up.

Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape odds

Method of Victory	Muhammed Mokaev	Manel Kape
To win outright	-150	+130
To win by KO/TKO	+1,200	+450
To win by decision	+135	+325
To win by submission	+425	+1,300
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-25.

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Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape tale of the tape

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