UFC 305: Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg Odds, Picks & Predictions

Kai Kara-France faces off against Steve Erceg in the co-main event for UFC 305 betting this Saturday.

This should be a banger between a pair of flyweight contenders, with Erceg coming off a title loss. UFC odds opened with Kara-France as a +180 underdog, but money has come in on him, slimming his line to +155 with Erceg now at -180.

Here are my best free Kara-France vs. Erceg predictions for August 17.

Kara-France vs Erceg prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Kara-France moneyline (+155 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Kara-France moneyline (+155 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Although Steve Erceg is fresh off a loss, it raised his stock since he lost a very competitive decision against flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja. The fight marked a big step up in competition for Erceg and he proved up to the challenge by holding his own in the striking exchanges. However, his shortcomings came by getting held on the mat. 

Kara-France is on a two-fight slide but shouldn't be downgraded much for those defeats. In his last bout, he dropped a split decision to No. 3 ranked flyweight Amir Albazi. That was a controversial ruling, with 19 of 21 MMA outlets giving the decision to Kara-France (including 10 outlets that scored it 49-46 in his favor).

Before that, he challenged Brandon Moreno for the title and lost by TKO in the third round. While it's never good to get knocked out in a fight, Moreno is right up there with Pantoja as the best flyweight in the world, and they had a back-and-forth striking war before KFF was caught with a liver kick. 

While Erceg does have the grappling advantage, Kara-France's strong defensive wrestling should be able to offset that. Expect this bout to be decided in the standup, and while Erceg has good boxing and a taller frame, KKF does a better job of attacking all three levels and actually has a 1-inch reach advantage.  

Erceg also doesn't move his head off the center line, and we've seen him get cracked by guys like Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak. Kara-France is a more technical striker than those guys and carries a lot more power in his shots. In what should be a close striking battle, take the underdog at plus money.

Best best analysis

The opening line for this bout seemed like a case of recency bias. Sure, Erceg is coming off an impressive performance against the champ, but Kara-France is the best striker he has ever faced and is more battle-tested with 11 fights in the UFC. 

In addition, while Kara-France is being knocked for his 14-month layoff, taking appropriate time off after suffering a concussion in camp last August was the right choice. The fact that he gets to train alongside other elite fighters at City Kickboxing will ensure that he isn't rusty for this bout. 

While Erceg should be the favorite due to his grappling and less tread on his tires, he should be closer to the -140 range. While getting Kara-France at the opening number would obviously have been preferable, there's still value at +155.  

Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg odds

Method of Victory	Kara-France	Erceg
To win outright	+145	-180
To win by KO/TKO	+575	+600
To win by decision	+275	+130
To win by submission	+2,250	+540
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-17.

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Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg tale of the tape

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