UFC 306 is taking place tonight at The Sphere in Las Vegas, headlined by Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili, along with the trilogy fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso.
Before those matches, there's a series of intriguing fights on the preliminaries that could steal the show before the pay-per-view even gets started.
Here are my free UFC 306 preliminary predictions from Sin City.
UFC 306 prelim picks and predictions
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Qileng Aori
• Prediction: Rosas Jr. ML (-950 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Rosas by decision (+405 at Bet99)
Ignacio Bahomondes vs. Manuel Torres
• Prediction: Torres ML (-130 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Torres ML (-130 at Bet99)
Norma Dumont vs. Irene Aldana
• Prediction: Dumont ML (-110 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Dumont by decision (+130 at Bet99)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 306 prelim odds and picks
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Qileng Aori fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Rosas Jr. | Aori |
| To win outright | -950 | +675 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +380 | +1,450 |
| To win by decision | +405 | +1,500 |
| To win by submission | -180 | +4,500 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 9-14.
The general consensus is Aori will test Rosas Jr., but not overly threaten him. That's not surprising, as the 19-year-old is still developing, and he's about to face an established veteran with 36 fights under his belt. However, Aori struggles against wrestlers and is easy to hit, which is why wrestling prodigy Rosas Jr. is the odds-on favorite to win.
Though striking might be Rosas' weakness, Aori's defense isn't tight enough, nor is he a strong enough striker to keep Rosas off him. Expect Rosas to wrestle and dominate his opponent for the duration of the bout, controlling him on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Rosas Jr. moneyline (-950 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Rosas Jr. by decision (+405 at Bet99)
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Bahamondes | Torres |
| To win outright | +110 | -130 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +235 | +200 |
| To win by decision | +575 | +640 |
| To win by submission | +900 | +475 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 9-14.
Manuel Torres has knocked out each of his last four opponents inside the first round, but this fight figures to be different, as Ignacio Bahamondes is a great striker and has never been knocked out in his MMA career.
Bahamondes has more experience, can deliver his own powerful shots, and because Torres starts so aggressively, all he has to do is survive the first round to drag his opponent into deep waters.
That said, Torres is extremely dangerous, and since this is likely to be a brawl, I can't bet against his power. We'll see how durable Bahamondes is — he might survive an extended onslaught due to his size — but I'm comfortable taking Torres on the moneyline.
Prediction: Torres moneyline (-130 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Torres moneyline (-130 at Bet99)
Norma Dumont vs. Irene Aldana fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Dumont | Aldana |
| To win outright | -110 | -110 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +2,000 | +640 |
| To win by decision | +130 | +135 |
| To win by submission | +850 | +2,250 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 9-14.
This fight features Irene Aldana, one of the best strikers in the division and a former title challenger, going up against one of its best grapplers and top prospects, Norma Dumont.
Dumont has shown potential for a long time and she'll need a big performance here. If she can't get Aldana to the mat early, she'll get picked apart in the stand-up — much like she did against Germaine de Randamie.
Unlike de Randamie, Aldana can do more damage and has better footwork, making it even harder for Dumont to get her down. However, Aldana struggles to defend takedowns and doesn’t have good enough scrambles to knock off her opponent.
When Aldana can't set the pace, she struggles to get her offense going and becomes vulnerable to takedowns. I believe Dumont can pull this off by staying patient in the pocket, and eventually, Aldana will give her an opening for a takedown.
Prediction: Dumont moneyline (-110 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Dumont by decision (+130 at Bet99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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