UFC 312 Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado Predictions, Picks & Odds

The main card of UFC 312 kicks off with a welterweight bout between unranked contenders Jake Matthews and Francisco Prado.

Current UFC odds have Matthews listed as a large betting favorite at -250, while Prado returns at +190. Here are my free betting picks for Matthews vs. Prado at Qudos Bank Arena in Australia.

Matthews vs Prado prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Prado moneyline (+190 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Prado to win by decision (+575 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This fight is a big test for Francisco Prado, who's going against the much older and more experienced Jake Matthews. Prado, just 22 years old, is entering his fourth UFC fight, while the 30-year-old Matthews is making his 21st walk to the UFC Octagon.

Although Matthews’ experience will serve as an advantage in this matchup, the -250 moneyline odds are an overadjustment to that fact. He's trending in the wrong direction, posting a 3-3 record over his past six fights. The most concerning aspect of this stretch is that he's beating low-level opponents.

The first of those three wins came against Andre Fialho, who lost each of his final four fights in the UFC prior to his release in 2023. His second win over this stretch came against Darrius Flowers, who's 0-3 in the UFC since earning a contract through Dana White’s Contender Series.

His third and final win over the past four years came against Phil Rowe, who's also riding a two-fight losing streak. The bottom line? Matthews hasn’t secured a quality win in over five years. While his experience is an advantage over Prado, this -250 price seems inflated.

Best bet analysis

That said, I’m not a fan of Prado’s +190 moneyline odds, but I see significant value in the method-of-victory market. Prado’s method-of-victory odds are as follows:

• Decision: +575
• KO, TKO, or DQ: +450
• Submission: +1600

Let’s get the easy part out of the way and eliminate the submission prop. Prado’s 16/1 odds to win by submission are clearly a long shot. Both fighters are primarily strikers, so it would be surprising if this fight goes to the ground.

Now, if you like the underdog, then there's a ton of value on his decision prop at +575, especially when you compare it to his KO/TKO odds of +450. 

Oddsmakers believe this fight is going the distance with -155 odds of it doing so. Additionally, Prado is moving up to the 170-pound division, and he likely won’t carry the same power Matthews has faced before.

Matthews hasn’t been knocked out in nearly a decade. Prado’s best path to victory is through accurate striking and leveraging his youth to outlast Matthews in the later rounds. Prado hasn’t found consistent success in the UFC yet, but he remains a young, developing fighter with plenty of potential. Meanwhile, Matthews appears to have already peaked.

At nearly 6/1 odds, betting on the younger fighter to outpace and outland Matthews in a fight expected to go the distance offers excellent value.

Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado odds

Method of Victory	Matthews	Prado
To win outright	-245	+190
To win by KO/TKO	+550	+450
To win by decision	-105	+575
To win by submission	+600	+1600
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-8.

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Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado tale of the tape

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