UFC 312 will take place this weekend at the Qudos Bank Arena, and it features a rematch between middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland.
Quality fights on the undercard also provide some solid bets that can increase your weekend winnings, including a late substitute potentially scoring the upset of the night.
Here are my free UFC 312 preliminary predictions and UFC odds breakdown.
UFC 312 prelim picks and predictions
Aleksandre Topuria vs. Colby Thicknesse
• Prediction: Thicknesse ML (+335 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Thicknesse ML (+335 at BET99)
Hyun Sung Park vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
• Prediction: Park ML (-240 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-210 at BET99)
Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos
• Prediction: Santos ML (-250 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-210 at BET99)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 312 prelim odds and picks
Aleksandre Topuria vs Colby Thicknesse fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Topuria | Thicknesse |
| To win outright | -400 | +290 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +120 | +1800 |
| To win by decision | +450 | +550 |
| To win by submission | +240 | +1800 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 2-8.
Though Colby Thicknesse is coming in on short notice, the elder Topuria brother has been out of the ring for 20 months, and this is just the sixth fight of his MMA career that started back in 2015.
The desire to compete isn’t there for Topuria, who is heavily favored against the Alexander Volkanovski-trained Thicknesse. The proxy fight between Ilia Topuria and Volkanovski is an interesting subplot in an otherwise meandering fight, but there is serious upset potential in this one.
Thicknesse has four stoppages in seven wins and has been active. If he gets out of the first round, Topuria might gas out and leave himself open for Thicknesse to potentially pull this off. I feel Topuria is overvalued and Thicknesse is an attractive upset.
Prediction: Thicknesse moneyline (+335 at BET99)
Best Bet: Thicknesse moneyline (+335 at BET99)
Hyun Sung Park vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Park | Tumendemberel |
| To win outright | -240 | +180 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 2-8.
Hyun Sung Park has won two easy fights and hasn’t looked all that good, but there’s enough he’s shown that should get the job done against Tumendemberel.
Another thing in Park’s favor is he is the more accurate striker and Tumendemberel’s striking and takedown defense are lacking, which will be problematic as these two tend to brawl. Of the two, Park is the better finisher and can also rely on his grappling if the two hit the mat.
I’m picking Park to win because he seems to be better than Tumendemberel in all areas. However, I don’t see this fight going the distance. Because both fighters tend to finish their fights in the second round, the best bet is that it will last more than 1.5 rounds.
Prediction: Park moneyline (-240 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-210 at BET99)
Jack Jenkins vs Gabriel Santos fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Jenkins | Santos |
| To win outright | +185 | -250 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +675 | +575 |
| To win by decision | +370 | +120 |
| To win by submission | +2000 | +405 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 2-8.
Gabriel Santos broke a two-fight skid with a win over Yizha last September in a complete performance, but he’s got his work cut out for him even though he comes into this fight as a favorite.
Jenkins has a better striking and a better resume, but the fact he was taken down repeatedly by the subpar Herbert Burns leaves plenty of doubt especially as Santos is a competent grappler.
I don’t see Jenkins staying upright and avoiding the takedowns to keep the fight standing long enough to win this. I’m picking Santos to win, but my best bet will be the fight going Over 1.5 rounds.
Prediction: Santos moneyline (-250 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-210 at BET99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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