Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa is one of our featured events on the UFC 312 undercard. Brazilian heavyweight sensation Teixeira is making his UFC debut against the flawed but heavy-handed Tafa, and we’re about to see if this massive acquisition has what it takes to hang with the best in the world.
UFC odds have Teixeira as a -155 favorite and Tafa is the +125 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Teixeira vs. Tafa from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Tafa vs Teixeira prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction
Tafa moneyline (+125 at BET99) - My best bet
Over 1.5 rounds (+140 at BET99)
Fight analysis
On paper, Tallison Teixeira should hit the UFC heavyweight division like Godzilla hits Japan. He’s a 6-foot-7 giant with fast hands and excellent mobility and he has seven finishes in seven fights. This bout sees him going up against an unfocused fighter on the verge of journeyman status. With Teixeira’s impressive body and body of work, it's interesting he's only a minor favorite against an opponent someone with his build should defeat convincingly.
Half of Teixeira’s wins have come against regional opponents with negative records, including a win against a fighter with a 4-15 record. His win over Arthur Lopes in Dana White’s Contender Series might be the best win of his career, meaning that Tafa represents the best opponent he’s ever faced. We’re not too far removed from Robelis Despaigne’s disastrous run in the UFC, and Teixeira comes into his first fight with the promotion with similar vibes.
Tafa is the right person to welcome Teixeira to the UFC. He’ll test Teixeira, but to use pro wrestling terms, he’s there to put him over and see what he can potentially do in the division. Truthfully, Tafa hasn’t had much luck lately because he’s easy to figure out and can’t do much if his opponents aren’t lined up in front of him.
He’s a hard striker, but he’s easy to figure out and doesn’t seem too interested in doing anything else besides bang it out, which is why Karl Williams took him down seven times in his last fight.
Still, Teixeira is as green as they get. Tafa might not have all the goods, but he’s worlds better than Teixeira’s resume and will be able to touch him up and get him in a bad place. I’m picking Tafa to score a minor upset.
Best bet analysis
Tafa is notoriously hard to finish. He’s only been stopped once in four defeats and I don’t see the dynamism in Teixeira to get it done. Expect Teixeira to keep Tafa at the end of his long reach, buying him some time before Tafa sneaks inside his range and bombs him out. My best bet is Over 1.5 rounds.
Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Tafa | Teixeira |
| To win outright | +125 | -155 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +165 | +125 |
| To win by decision | +1100 | +730 |
| To win by submission | +2250 | +700 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 2-7.
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Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira tale of the tape
| Tafa | Teixeira | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 25 |
| 6-foot | Height | 6-foot-7 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 83 inches |
| 7-4 | Record | 7-0 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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