UFC 312 Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez Predictions, Picks & Odds

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez is the co-main event of UFC 312 and a high-level clash for the women’s strawweight title. Wrestling machine Suarez has shown championship potential for some time, but champ Weili is at the top of her game and ready to meet her worthy challenger.

UFC odds have Suarez a -115 favorite and champ Zhang a rare underdog at +100. Here are my best free betting picks and Weili vs. Suarez predictions for Saturday, February 8 from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Weili vs Suarez prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Weili moneyline (+100 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to go the distance (+115 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Tatiana Suarez has been out of action for the last 18 months, and injuries have limited her to just two fights in the last four years. Not only is this her first fight after another long layoff, but it will also be her first five-round bout — against a reigning champion who is actively improving an already world-class game no less. 

Under normal circumstances, this fight shouldn’t be happening, and yet, the odds are surprisingly close and she may end up being the favorite depending on how the late money swings going into the weekend. That speaks to Suarez’s skill level, as many see this fight as a toss-up despite her inactivity. However, the challenge she faces against Zhang Weili is a massive one.

Weili hits like a truck and has excellent conditioning. She’s also shown she can hold her own in the grappling department, as seen in dominant wins over Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan, where she completely neutralized their striking by tying them up and dictating the pace.

While she’s unlikely to engage in a takedown battle with a BJJ black belt like Suarez, if this remains primarily a striking match, it should be a foregone conclusion that Weili will win. Not only is she a stiff, powerful striker, but she’s also incredibly strong. It’s hard to imagine her allowing Suarez inside without punishing her first and making every takedown attempt a battle.

Suarez isn’t without options. She’s well-rounded, boasts excellent takedown defense, and has solid striking defense. Her stoppage wins over former champions like Alexa Grasso and Jessica Andrade prove that she is worthy of title contention. The opponents who have troubled or beaten Weili in the past had to endure relentless pressure and heavy strikes to find success.

Suarez has a three-inch reach advantage that could assist her in the striking exchanges, her path to victory will be exploiting Weili’s 50% takedown defense rate and controlling the fight on the mat. She may have some success early, but if she struggles to keep Weili down or impose her wrestling, the back half of the fight could turn into a nightmare for her.

There are too many unknowns surrounding Suarez’s ability to perform over five rounds after such a long layoff. Weili, on the other hand, is battle-tested, in peak form, and will apply constant pressure. That’s a dangerous combination for an underdog coming off an extended absence, even if she has the skill set to make things interesting.

Had Suarez been more active, she’d be the pick, but I’m going with the champion to retain in a close bout.

Best bet analysis
Weili should be able to weather Suarez’s wrestling offense early on, maybe suffering a takedown or two early on, but ultimately getting the better of the striking exchanges. 

However, the fight will take a turn in the third round as either Weili will have started to break Suarez down with her cardio and superior striking or Suarez finds a way to put Weili in retreat while keeping her contained on the mat. Either way, I don’t see a stoppage, and my best bet is the fight going the full distance. 

Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez odds

Method of Victory	Weili	Suarez
To win outright	+100	-120
To win by KO/TKO	+300	+790
To win by decision	+335	+335
To win by submission	+1600	+265
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-8.

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Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez tale of the tape

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