UFC 312 Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland Predictions, Picks & Odds

Dricus du Plessis faces off against Sean Strickland for the middleweight championship at UFC 312 on Saturday from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

This is a rematch from last year's title fight when du Plessis won a controversial split decision. UFC odds have du Plessis at -200 to come out on top again, with Strickland listed as the underdog at +170.

Here are my best du Plessis vs. Strickland predictions and free betting picks for February 8.

du Plessis vs Strickland prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Strickland moneyline (+170 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Strickland by decision (+265 at BET99)

Fight analysis

I'm not somebody who thinks that Sean Strickland was "robbed" in his split-decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 297 last year. That said, Strickland clearly won rounds 1 and 5 and it came down to a razor-close Round 3, which could have gone to either fighter. Du Plessis entered that previous bout as a slim +100 underdog and considering how close that clash was, it's surprising that the line for the rematch is so wide. 

Sure, du Plessis is coming off an impressive finish of former champ Israel Adesanya, but Strickland also beat Adesanya when he claimed the belt in 2023. Strickland also looked sharp in his last bout, a decision victory against Paulo Costa last summer.

While that win against Costa was a split decision, the scorecard from Dave Tirelli was one of the worst I've ever seen, with the other two judges giving Strickland scores of 50-45 and 49-46. 

Strickland had a relatively small 182-158 edge in overall significant strikes against Costa. However, 104 of his significant strikes landed to the head while Costa was just 28 of 100 on significant head strikes.

Strickland's ability to target the head while blocking shots to his own face gives him a significant advantage. He also landed an incredible 157 significant strikes to du Plessis' head in their previous bout and did plenty of visible damage while Dricus landed 81.

Although du Plessis had six takedowns in that fight, he wasn't able to do anything with them since Strickland quickly fought back to his feet. DDP controlled Strickland for a grand total of two minutes with no submission attempts or ground strikes. 

If DDP is unable to do anything on the ground and can't land his winging power shots, this fight will likely come to volume and what criteria the judges value. That should make this bout lined closer to a pick'em, making Strickland the value side at +165.

Best bet analysis

Strickland is a bit of a decision merchant and his usual path to victory involves pumping out his jab while relying on his striking defense and cardio. Six of his last seven wins have come by way of points and the lone knockout he had during that span came against an unranked Abus Magomedov.

I could see du Plessis seeking out another decision or getting a finish, but if Strickland gets the victory it will almost certainly be via points. That gives plenty of upside to that prop at +250. 

Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland odds

Method of Victory	du Plessis	Strickland
To win outright	-220	+180
To win by KO/TKO	+325	+900
To win by decision	+160	+280
To win by submission	+500	+2900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-8.

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Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland tale of the tape

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