UFC Fight Night Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dylan Budka Predictions, Picks & Odds

The main card of UFC Fight Night features a middleweight bout between unranked contenders Edmen Shahbazyan and Dylan Budka.

Current UFC odds have Shahbazyan listed as a large betting favorite at -400 via BET99, while Budka returns at +310. Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. Budka predictions for Saturday’s event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

Shahbazyan vs Budka prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Shahbazyan moneyline (-400 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Shahbazyan by KO, TKO, or DQ (+125 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Dylan Budka earned a contract to the UFC with a unanimous decision victory over Chad Hanekom on Dana White’s Contender Series. However, he has struggled to find his footing in the world’s best promotion with two straight losses to Cesar Almeida and Andre Petroski.

I think it is more likely than not that Budka is a stronger fighter than what we have seen out of him from those two losses, but there is just nothing there to confidently invest in this fighter. Let’s start with the loss to Almeida, which was a terrible performance.

Budka couldn’t establish anything from a distance, which led to some exchanges in the clinch. He essentially hung on for dear life as Almeida pummeled him in the clinch, which somehow led to Budka gassing out as he was hanging on and doing nothing while absorbing punches.

Almeida had seen enough and finished him with a second-round knockout.

Budka followed that loss with a fight against Petroski, prior to which Budka missed weight by 2.5 pounds and nearly collapsed during the weigh-ins. That in itself is a concern for Budka at 185 pounds moving forward, let alone the poor performances he has demonstrated across the two losses.

He has displayed low-level striking, grappling, and takedown defense, and it would likely take a complete overhaul in this camp for Budka to show the necessary improvement to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. Is that overhaul possible? Absolutely, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Best bet analysis

That said, I’m not a fan of Shahbazyan’s -370 moneyline odds, but I see significant value in the method-of-victory market. Shahbazyan’s method-of-victory odds are as follows:

• KO, TKO, or DQ (+125)
• Decision (+280)
• Submission (+425)

I want to eliminate the submission prop first. Budka will likely try to grapple unsuccessfully again, while Shahbazyan is a violent striker who will prefer to keep this fight standing. Shahbazyan has just one submission victory through 18 professional MMA bouts and has attempted just four takedowns over his past seven fights in the UFC if you exclude his matchup against Nassourdine Imavov.

That leaves Shahbazyan’s knockout and decision props, and the clear value, in my opinion, is on the former. First, Budka has demonstrated a weak gas tank in the UFC, and I find it highly unlikely he can survive three rounds against Shahbazyan unless he pulls off a miracle knockout or submission early on.

Oddsmakers agree, considering that this fight to not go the distance is priced at -230.

Second, Shahbazyan carries a ton of power with 11 of his 13 professional MMA wins coming by KO/TKO. I believe this play offers plus-money value only because Shahbazyan is 2-5 in his past seven fights.

However, those five losses are to Imavov, Gerald Meerschaert, Anthony Hernandez, Jack Hermansson, and Derek Brunson. With all due respect to Budka, he is nowhere near the caliber of fighters on that list.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dylan Budka odds

Method of Victory	Shahbazyan	Budka
To win outright	-400	+310
To win by KO/TKO	+125	+1600
To win by decision	+280	+600
To win by submission	+425	+975
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-15.

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Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dylan Budka tale of the tape

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