UFC Fight Night Jared Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former middleweight title challenger Jared Cannonier takes on Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues in tonight's headline event for UFC Fight Night.

UFC odds have the up-and-coming Rodrigues penned as a -230 favorite, with Cannonier entering as a +190 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues predictions for February 15 from the Apex in Las Vegas. 

Cannonier vs Rodrigues prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Rodriguez moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Rodrigues by KO/TKO or Decision (-125 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Jared Cannonier is still extremely strong for this weight class and has good technical skills as well. That said, he's turning 41 next month and we've seen a diminished version of him in recent fights.

He's coming off a decision loss to Caio Borralho, where Cannonier was outstruck 153-83 and almost got finished. Before that, he lost by TKO to Nassourdine Imamov in the fourth round of their scrap last June. Cannonier is a lot slower than he used to be and his chin has looked compromised.

Cannonier is calculated and technical in his approach but he doesn't do well when he can't control tempo. Gregory Rodrigues thrives when he can turn things into a war, and with the smaller cage at the APEX, it won't be hard for him to cut off the cage and close distance.

Rodrigues is in his prime and has gone 5-1 in his last six fights, with four of those wins coming by knockout. In his last bout, he landed four takedowns and controlled Christian Leroy Duncan for more than eight minutes, en route to a lopsided decision victory. 

Not only is Rodrigues younger and faster, but he also boasts more tools. When you also factor in his incredible punching power and grappling upside, he should be able to send Cannonier to his third straight loss. 

Best bet analysis
Although Rodrigues has good BJJ ability, he hasn't won by submission since 2018 when he was competing on the regional circuit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Cannonier is tough to control on the mat and has never been submitted in eight career defeats.

Cannonier's chin has generally held up since moving down to middleweight. That said, he's been getting hurt a lot in his recent fights and is at an advanced age where his durability will start to go. That's bad news against Rodrigues, who loads up on his shots and hits like a truck. 

Eight of Robocop's last 10 wins have come by knockout and if he doesn't win by KO/TKO this time around, he'll likely grind out a decision. That gives plenty of value for this double method to win prop.

Jared Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues odds

Method of Victory	Cannonier	Rodrigues
To win outright	+190	-230
To win by KO/TKO	+365	+145
To win by decision	+600	+405
To win by submission	+2900	+440
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-15.

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Jared Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues tale of the tape

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