UFC 307: Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Odds, Picks & Predictions

Jose Aldo faces off against Mario Bautista on the main card for UFC 307 betting tonight from the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City. 

Although Aldo is past his prime and a +120 underdog against an up-and-coming fighter in Bautista, I'm defying the UFC odds and betting on the King of Rio with my best free Aldo vs. Bautista predictions for October 5. 

Aldo vs Bautista prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Aldo moneyline (+120 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Aldo moneyline (+120 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This is a big step up in competition for Mario Bautista, whose most impressive victory came against unranked Ricky Simon in January. Don't forget that 10 of 15 MMA outlets thought he should have lost against Da'Mon Blackshear last year when he was outstruck 90-79 and taken down four times.

Despite being 38 years old, Jose Aldo is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Jonathan Martinez, who was ironically also on a six-fight win streak before facing him. Aldo pieced up the 30-year-old Martinez in the boxing exchanges, boasting a 77-52 edge in significant strikes, and he secured a takedown in the third round to seal the victory.  

Aldo is also 4-1 in his last five fights, with his only loss coming against current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. He displayed incredible takedown defense in that fight, stuffing all 16 attempts from Merab. Bautista is a well-rounded fighter with good grappling ability but if Dvalishvili couldn't take Aldo down, Bautista won't be able to implement his ground game. 

It will come down to the striking exchanges, and while Bautista is younger and throws at a high volume, he's not as technical and doesn't hit as hard as Aldo. In addition, Bautista's pressure and aggressiveness could get him into trouble against Aldo's crisp counter-striking and ability to attack every level.

Back the more experienced and battle-tested fighter here. 

Best best analysis

Jose Aldo is the former featherweight champion and an MMA legend, but he's been overlooked by oddsmakers in recent fights. He dismantled Martinez as a +150 underdog and he also defeated Rob Font as a +125 dog a few fights ago. He was also available at close to a pick'em price in victories against Pedro Munhoz (-105) and Marlon Vera (-125).

This is a guy who has practically only lost to champions and former champions in his entire career. The lone exception to that rule was when he lost a close split decision to Marlon Moraes in his bantamweight debut back in 2019 (and Moraes was coming off a title shot at the time). Since then, Aldo has settled into this weight class and has proved that he can cut down to 135 without being drained.  

At some point, the wheels have to come off for Aldo, but he's given no indication that it will be anytime soon. There's still value in betting on him when facing a largely untested opponent like Bautista. 

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista odds

Method of Victory	Aldo	Bautista
To win outright	+115	-140
To win by KO/TKO	+640	+425
To win by decision	+180	+135
To win by submission	+2,700	+2,100
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-5.

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Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista tale of the tape

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