UFC 307: Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena Odds, Picks & Predictions

Raquel Pennington makes the first defense of her bantamweight title against former champion Julianna Pena.

While Pena is best known for her upset for the ages against the women’s G.O.A.T. of MMA in Amanda Nunes, my Pennington vs. Pena predictions expect her to fall short of becoming a two-time champion at UFC 307 on October 5.

Pennington vs Pena prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pennington ML (-160 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pennington to win by decision (+105 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This title fight pits a champion and a challenger who both held gold after scoring an upset. While I would have been shocked if someone told me Raquel "Rocky" Pennington was going to beat Mayra Bueno Silva with straight up strikes, I'm still in shock Pena beat Nunes. 

Despite the common link between opponents, these two are not the same. While Pena did score the MMA equivalent of Douglas/Tyson, she clearly caught a disinterested and unfocused Nunes at a low point; something accentuated when Nunes put an absolute beating on her in the rematch before retiring from MMA.

It’s been two years since that fight, but she gets another bite at the apple against Pennington. Say what you want about Rocky, but she’s a tough operator who doesn’t make exploitable mistakes and is a grinder in every sense of the word. 

Pena comes off a two-year layoff, and for someone who's an aggressive grappler and always pushing the pace, she'll find it hard to get her game going. Pennington has been taken down seven times in her last five bouts, and being on her back in this fight is going to be more dangerous than it was against Silva.

The champion controls the action better than Pena does, and her clinches, as well as her ground defense, give her an edge. At the same time, when Pennington can force her opponents up against the cage, she grinds the action to a halt and takes full control. 

Rocky has outlanded her last four opponents two-to-one in strikes. With Pena likely looking to bully Pennington in hopes of getting her to the ground, the champion will be in control of the fight for as long as the two remain standing.

Best best analysis

Regardless of the weight of her crowning achievement, this would always have been a tough match for Pena, and the extended layoff only makes me more confident she'll fall short here.

Pennington is hard to pin down and has great submission defense, not to mention she’s the busier and more accurate striker of the two. My best bet is Pennington makes this a typical, slow-paced affair she’s known for, eventually winning by decision.

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena odds

Method of Victory	Pennington	Pena
To win outright	-160	+135
To win by KO/TKO	+2,000	+1,200
To win by decision	+110	+295
To win by submission	+500	+550
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-5.

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Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena tale of the tape

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