UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Odds, Picks & Predictions

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig is a middleweight serving as one of our featured attractions on the UFC 309 undercard. Nickal is surging and will have an opportunity to shine against the battle-tested submission specialist Craig.

UFC odds have Nickal a major -1,100 favorite, and Craig is a +640 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Nickal vs. Craig from Madison Square Garden in New York.

Nickal vs Craig prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Nickal moneyline (-1100 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Nickal by KO/TKO (-150 at BET99)

Fight analysis

There’s a big reason why the UFC is so invested in Bo Nickal. He’s an all-American athlete, a Division I NCAA wrestling champion, and he has swagger. As long as Nickal keeps winning, he has the potential to be the face of the promotion and will do his part to sell pay-per-views like Brock Lesnar or even Conor McGregor.

He keeps getting these spotlight assignments on major fight cards, and he’s back at it again, where he faces off against the most experienced fighter he’s come across so far in Paul Craig. Though that may be the case, Nickal is set to impress and keep his momentum going.

Nickal is a wrestling machine, and he hasn’t needed to do much by way of striking to win his six UFC fights. As a matter of fact, Nickal has yet to land 10 significant strikes in a fight, and all of his wins have come inside the distance thanks to his insane pressure and suffocating wrestling.

When Nickal gets his opponents on the ground, he's a capable BJJ user and can make it look like we’re watching a bear attack. Though his striking could use work, his strikes are powerful and could cause Craig a lot of trouble.

Craig has managed to score big wins over really good fighters like Jamahal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev, but his method of getting beaten up and winning by hail-mary submissions hasn’t worked out for him lately.

He’s lost four of his last five fights, and his drop down to middleweight hasn’t improved his chances. The thing about Craig is that he's chinny, has bad takedown defense, and poor striking, but he's the master of playing dead and drawing people into the danger zone when he's perhaps moments away from being put away himself.

Despite Nickal’s relative inexperience, he's better than Craig in all aspects. Even if Craig tries to play possum, Nickal’s pure strength and superior wrestling means any time Craig spends on his back will likely result in him being punished. I’d venture to say Craig might not even get the chance to execute his game plan, as he’s liable to eat one of Nickal’s haymakers as they stand.

This fight was made to help develop Nickal and give him a win over a credible top-25 opponent. From what we’ve seen from Craig lately, there’s little to suggest we’ll see an upset. Nickal is the pick.

Best best analysis

I mentioned previously that Nickal’s striking is his weakest attribute, but I believe he’ll use Craig as an opportunity to work on his technique. The live fire exercise will likely be successful, as lighter strikers have wobbled Craig, who's been knocked out five times in eight losses. Be it an over-the-top right hand that splits his guard or ground-and-pound, I’m willing to bet that Nickal wins this by knockout.

Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig odds

Method of Victory	Nickal	Craig
To win outright	-1300	+700
To win by KO/TKO	-150	+3500
To win by decision	+725	+2100
To win by submission	+185	+2000
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 11-16

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Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig tale of the tape

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