UFC 311: Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Predictions, Picks & Odds

The UFC bantamweight title is on the line in the first of two title defenses on the UFC 311 card as champion Merab Dvalishvili makes the first defense of his title against the dangerous Umar Nurmagomedov.

UFC odds label Nurmagomedov as a significant -340 favorite, while the champion, Dvalishvili, is an underdog at +250, and my Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov predictions side with the books.

Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Nurmagomedov ML (-365 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 4.5 (-260 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This bantamweight clash seems like a foregone conclusion based on the odds, but it’s a tough fight to pick. Dvalishvili has run through the division, beating top-tier fighters and shutting down Sean O’Malley to win his title.

Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov has name recognition and looked phenomenal in his win over Cory Sandhagen, though his rapid rise feels like he’s being fast-tracked into contention.

Both fighters are elite wrestlers, but Nurmagomedov appears to have the edge defensively and can rely on his superior striking if his grappling fails.

While the challenger hasn’t faced opponents like Petr Yan or Henry Cejudo, his high fight IQ and perfect takedown defense suggest this bout could be decided by who performs better on the feet.

That tilts the advantage to Nurmagomedov, but Dvalishvili’s relentless cardio and pressure make him a constant threat. Fighters like Cejudo and O’Malley found moments of success landing big shots on Dvalishvili during takedown attempts, but neither could capitalize or stop his forward march.

Nurmagomedov’s patience and ability to distinguish between scoring and striking opportunities set him apart, ensuring he won’t leave himself open unnecessarily.

This fight is razor-close, but I don’t see Dvalishvili consistently outwrestling Nurmagomedov. The challenger’s patience, striking, and defensive awareness should be enough to edge him to victory, though it won’t come easily.

Best bet analysis

While I’m picking Nurmagomedov to win, the best bet is the fight goes the distance. Both fighters are durable, and their styles don’t lend themselves to a high likelihood of a finish.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov odds

Method of Victory	Dvalishvili	Nurmagomedov
To win outright	+215	-280
To win by KO/TKO	+1100	+730
To win by decision	+320	-105
To win by submission	+2500	+425
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 1-18.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov tale of the tape

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