UFC 313 Amanda Lemos vs Iasmin Lucindo Predictions, Picks & Odds

Amanda Lemos and Iasmin Lucindo square off in a strawweight fight with potential title implications in one of the featured betting attractions on the UFC 313 undercard.

The aging Lemos looks to turn back the clock one more time, but the rising Lucindo has other plans.

UFC odds have Lucindo a -140 favorite and Lemos as a +110 underdog. Here are my best free Lemos vs. Lucindo predictions from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Lemos vs Lucindo prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Lucindo moneyline (-140 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Lucindo to win by submission OR decision (-120 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Though Amanda Lemos is 15 years older than Iasmin Lucindo and coming off a submission loss to Virna Jandiroba, she is only a minor underdog.

Lucindo has won four straight fights against solid competition. And while Lemos remains a legitimate contender at strawweight, it's somewhat surprising that she opened as the favorite. The winner of this fight will likely be positioned for a title eliminator.

Lemos is an aggressive striker with serious power. She applies constant forward pressure and thrives when she can dictate pace. However, that aggression causes her to be left open to counters, and she has struggled significantly with takedown defense.

Against Jandiroba, she spent over six minutes on her back before tapping out to an armbar. If she can keep the fight standing, Lemos' superior striking could be the deciding factor, as Lucindo lacks one-shot power.

Lucindo, meanwhile, brings a more balanced attack, though her path to victory likely lies in exploiting Lemos’ weak takedown defense. While she has eight career knockouts, those came at the regional level, and she has yet to showcase similar finishing ability in the UFC.

However, her grappling has been a key weapon, landing two or more takedowns in each of her last four fights. In her most recent win against a similarly weathered Marina Rodriguez, she couldn't overtake her in the striking department, so she grappled and eked out a win with well-timed takedowns and ground control.

The key factor in this fight is whether Lemos can keep it standing. If she does, her striking edge will allow her to outwork Lucindo in the exchanges. However, she risks losing the round or getting submitted every time she gets taken down.

Given Lucindo's ability to control fights on the ground, Lemos will likely struggle to stay upright for long stretches because her defense isn’t where it needs to be and she’s pushing 40.

At this stage of her career, it’s difficult to see Lemos making the necessary adjustments. While she may have moments on the feet, Lucindo will eventually find her opening, take her down, and grind out another victory.

Best bet analysis
Given her ability to dictate the fight on the ground, Lucindo putting Lemos on the mat will open up a chance to get a submission or give her plenty of scoring opportunities as she pins her down. As a result, the double chance on Lucindo to win by submission or decision is my best bet. 

Amanda Lemos vs Iasmin Lucindo odds

Method of Victory	Lemos	Lucindo
To win outright	+115	-140
To win by KO/TKO	+625	+1600
To win by decision	+240	+125
To win by submission	+900	+550
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-8.

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Amanda Lemos vs Iasmin Lucindo tale of the tape

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