Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, October 15.
Although this matchup seems pretty underwhelming for a headliner, it could serve as a stepping stone to a women's flyweight title shot — especially for Grasso who is on a three-fight winning streak.
UFC odds hit the board with Grasso as a -170 favorite and money has come in on the younger fighter with her price now at -215.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo picks and predictions for October 15 from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo fight odds
Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +380 | +1,100 |
| To win by Points | +125 | +280 |
| To win by Submission | +900 | +1,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 12, 2022.
Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo betting preview
Alexa Grasso is the No. 5 ranked flyweight contender and has won three fights in a row since moving up to the 125-pound division. In her most recent bout in March she submitted Joanne Wood by rear-naked choke in the first round.
That was an impressive victory for Grasso who showed improved grappling and picked up her first finish in nine UFC bouts. The 29-year-old is more well known for her boxing with strong technical striking ability and quick hands.
Viviane Araujo is one spot behind Grasso in the flyweight rankings and is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Andrea Lee in May.
That allowed her to bounce back from a decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian last year when Chookagian used her typical distance striking to outpoint her at range.
Araujo was the former strawweight champion at Pancrase and she's 5-2 in the octagon since making her promotional debut in 2019. The 35-year-old Brazilian is a well-rounded fighter that is comfortable both on the mat and on her feet, where she lands 4.76 significant strikes per minute.
Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo tale of the tape
| Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 125.5 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 66 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 17-3 (4 KOs) | Record | 11-3 (3 KOs) |
Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Grasso
Grasso has shown vast improvements in her ground game and even when she does get taken down, she does a good job of getting back to her feet.
Araujo is a good grappler with solid takedown ability but she isn't elite enough in that area to impose her will or control Grasso for long periods of time. She can also be a bit hittable when she stands in the pocket looking to fire away with her Muay Thai.
Over a five-round fight, I expect Grasso's speed, slick boxing, and steady pace to lead to a victory over the older Araujo.
Prediction: Grasso moneyline (-215 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Grasso by decision
Grasso might be coming off a first-round finish but that's her first stoppage win since 2014 when she was fighting in Invicta.
She isn't going to be able to submit Araujo who is a vastly superior grappler to Wood. While Grasso's technical striking and volume should give her the edge on the feet, I don't see her knocking out Araujo either.
Especially with Grasso not even having a single knockdown under her belt in the UFC, she'll likely be a bit cautious in the striking exchanges as she looks to defend level changes. With seven of Grasso's last eight wins coming by decision, back her to win via points again.
Pick: Grasso by decision (+125 at FanDuel)
