Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa is scheduled for three rounds in the featherweight division as a featured undercard attraction on the UFC Fight Night card from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Both Caceres and Erosa are finding success deep in their respective careers, but this crossroads clash will only allow one fighter to stay relevant in the emerging division.
UFC odds have Erosa pegged as a -190 favorite to win his fourth in a row. Caceres needs to bounce back from a recent loss as a +145 betting underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Caceres vs. Erosa at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Caceres vs Erosa fight odds
Caceres vs Erosa method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | +420 |
| To win by Points | +310 | +175 |
| To win by Submission | +1,100 | +550 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on December 16, 2022.
Caceres vs Erosa picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Caceres vs Erosa betting preview
Caceres vs. Erosa is another tantalizing fight between two skilled journeymen. Caceres and Erosa have both had success recently, but there is room for one on the next step in the featherweight rankings. These two complement each other nicely and should be a competitive fight.
Erosa is making the most of his second stint with the UFC. Since going 2-4 in his first run, he’s reversed his fortunes and has gone 5-1 since returning in 2020. In his last fight, Erosa had an easy night’s work against Hakeem Dawodu at UFC 279, where he overwhelmed him with activity.
“Juicy J” is no stranger to pain and gives it as often as he receives it. He lands 6.26 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and has good grappling to boot with 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with 48% accuracy. Erosa has an even mix of knockouts and submissions in his 23 finishes, with an average fight time of 9:23 seconds.
Caceres is a 10-year veteran who got his start on The Ultimate Fighter and has been a reliable attraction ever since. Inconsistency has sagged his development, though he went on a five-fight winning streak before losing to Sodiq Yusuff last March. While Caceres has seen it all, there is the sense that he has to dig deep here to pull this one off and avoid an additional setback.
If nothing else, Caceres gets style points for making Bruce Buffer say the words “Bruce Leeroy” on the mic. He lands 4.12 significant strikes per 15 minutes at 51% accuracy and gets his opponents on the ground if he needs to with 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at 70% accuracy. Caceres is a passive fighter up top but is dangerous when in control, as he has seven submission wins with an average fight time of 12:02.
Neither of these guys is going to threaten the true elite of the division, but they are showing enough in their game lately that they could fall into a major fight. The odds here seem to be doing Caceres a favor by being as close as they are.
Caceres vs Erosa tale of the tape
| Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 145 lbs | Weight | 145 lbs |
| 73.5 inches | Reach | 74.5 inches |
| 19-13 (3 KO) | Record | 28-9 (11 KO) |
Caceres vs Erosa UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Erosa ML
Caceres does his best work when the fight is at a methodical pace, and he’s floundered against opponents who can turn up the intensity. That doesn’t bode well for him here, as Erosa is a high-volume striker and doesn’t sacrifice quality for quantity. At the same time, Erosa’s striking defense is atrocious and a liability. Or, it would be if Caceres had any pop in his strikes.
Just by comparing their styles, Erosa has everything in order to run away with this one. We’re inclined to pick him to win on Saturday.
Prediction: Erosa moneyline (-170 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Erosa by submission
As long as Erosa stays below -200, you really can’t go wrong with picking him straight up in a fight where he should be a bigger favorite. That being said, we can’t ignore the juicy price of picking him to win by submission at +500.
Caceres has been submitted seven times and has a solid chin, but he’s likely to get worked over and hit the canvas at some point. Once Erosa takes his back, he won’t have a lot to contend with in order to choke him out. We’re liking Erosa to submit Caceres for our best bet.
Pick: Erosa by submission (+500 at DraftKings)
