Caio Borralho vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk is scheduled for three rounds in the middleweight division as the co-main event of tonight’s UFC Fight Night card from The APEX in Las Vegas.
Borralho is on the cusp of breaking into the middleweight rankings, and Oleksiejczuk isn’t exactly going to make it easy for him to get there.
UFC odds have Borralho as a -345 favorite. Oleksiejczuk is a +285 underdog.
Here are our betting picks for Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk at UFC Fight Night, Saturday, April 29.
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk fight odds
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Caio Borralho | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +275 | +650 |
| To win by Points | +250 | +650 |
| To win by Submission | +165 | +2,500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on April 27, 2023.
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best UFC bonuses
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a 20% profit boost on any UFC bet every week at Unibet! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk betting preview
Caio Borralho has passed the eye test as a talent to watch at middleweight due to his mix of power and grappling ability. But this could be a tough night at the office for him, as Oleksiejczuk is a savage striker who might be hard for him to pin down. It’ll take the totality of his skills to pull this off.
To win, Borralho needs to rely on his accurate striking to open up an opportunity to exploit the Pole’s subpar takedown defense. We’ve seen Oleksiejczuk struggle on the ground, having three submission losses on his record, but he also might have conditioning issues that he’s carrying with him from light heavyweight.
Borralho hasn’t lost an MMA fight in seven years. If he wants to keep that streak alive and break into the rankings at middleweight, he needs to diffuse Oleksiejczulk’s pressure without getting blasted out in the early rounds. He’ll have advantages in speed and conditioning, so he just needs to find a way to get on the ground.
Michal Oleksiejczuk has brought two helpings of Polish Power with him to middleweight. The beatings he put on Sam Alvey and Cody Brundage were savage, though he’s raising the competition in a big way. Still, Olkesiejczuk can use his size to pressure and harass Borralho in a way the Brazilian has yet to experience in the UFC.
That means Oleksiejczuk has to be able to keep the fight standing. He won’t get lucky like he did against Brundage, who practically fell in front of him in a failed takedown attempt, and has to find a way to cut off the octagon.
If Borralho has any exploitable weaknesses, it is his conservative striking output. Oleksiejczuk is a busy striker who can easily outwork Borralho up top, but he needs to do it for three rounds. That’s a long time to restrict a speedier fighter’s movement, while fending off takedown attempts through it all.
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk tale of the tape
| Caio Borralho | Michal Oleksiejczuk | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-feet |
| 186 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 13-1 (4 KO) | Record | 18-5 (13 KO) |
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Borralho ML
Jimmy Crute took Oleksiejczuk down eight times when he submitted him, and even Brundage had him down three times before he got stopped. The size difference will be apparent in his strikes, but not in his ability to deflect takedowns, where he posts a lowly 43%.
This should be a good fight for Borralho to display the totality of his skills, essentially an audition to face a top contender down the line. We believe he’ll pass this audition with the combination of his boxing skills and a few takedowns along the way.
Prediction: Borralho ML (-345 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Borralho by submission
With Oleksiejczuk coming forward, pressing for a big shot, Borralho’s speed will keep him off balance for a counter that knocks him to the mat. We also have to consider that the Pole tends to slow down if he can’t pin his foes down early, leaving him vulnerable in clinches as well.
That should be enough for us to like Borralho’s chances in tiring Oleksiejczuk out, scoring a critical takedown that leads to a submission. When that happens, expect "The Natural'' to do what he does best and bring home another win via submission.
Pick: Borralho by submission (+165 at DraftKings)
