UFC Fight Night Green vs Gordon Picks and Predictions: Grass is Greener

Bobby Green vs. Jared Gordon is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division as the featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from The Apex in Las Vegas.

Slick boxer Green assures this is going to be his final fight, and it serves as the perfect opportunity for Gordon to score a big win in pursuit of a rematch with Paddy Pimblett. 

UFC odds have Green as a moderate -250 favorite. Gordon is a +205 underdog.

Here are our picks and predictions for Green vs. Gordon on Saturday, April 22.

Green vs Gordon fight odds

Green vs Gordon method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on April 22, 2023.

Green vs Gordon picks

• Prediction: Green ML (-250)
• Best bet: Green by decision (-110)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Green vs Gordon betting preview

Green and Gordon are known for being tough tests for those coming up the ladder. They’re good fighters who often fall short in their auditions to be great ones, but their entertainment value and reliability are what keep them getting these prime-time spots. This is a crossroads fight where both fighters have something to prove.

We saw the best and worst of Green in his last fight against Drew Dober. For the duration of their bout, Green was pummeling Dober and used shoulder rolls along with fancy footwork to avoid his opponent’s return fire. However, Dober finally connected the shot that slumped Green. It was Green’s lackadaisical awareness that caused him to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory.   

There’s no reason to expect anything less in this fight. Green is at his best when he’s mobile and firing off shots, keeping his opponents unbalanced, and relying on his excellent conditioning to do that for three rounds. He’s a volume puncher with good takedown defense and physical strength, though the aforementioned lack of awareness can be troublesome.

Gordon became a household name when the UFC robbed him at gunpoint in a loss to Pimblett at UFC 282. He was seen as a safe opponent for a potential highlight-reel stoppage, but Gordon outworked Pimblett at every turn, winning the fight despite what the judges said. Like Green, he is another volume striker, though he mixes in takedowns and wrestling in his game.

For Gordon to win, he’ll essentially have to beat Green at his own game. The key to beating a volume puncher is disrupting their rhythm with clinches or crowding them, which Gordon has shown he can do. 

From there, he’ll have to be first to fire and hope he can deal with Green’s movement.

Green vs Gordon tale of the tape

Green vs Gordon UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Green ML

“King” Bobby has the faster hands, better striking selection, and natural advantages in height and reach to make this a tough night for Gordon. Neither of them are hard hitters, though Gordon has durability issues that might cause him to shell up if he can’t get to Green first. Dober had to throw with Green to catch him, and he took a lot of punishment just to land the kill shot. 

Gordon doesn’t possess that kind of power or tenacity. Once Green starts up, he’ll be hard to slow down. Without the resources to trouble Green, and with Green likely to be more mindful defensively after his last fight, Gordon is going to be on the outside looking in all night.

We like Green to rebound here with a clear win over “Flash” Gordon.

Prediction: Green moneyline (-250 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Green decision

Despite Gordon being stopped four times in six defeats, Green won’t land with enough authority to force a stoppage without a bad cut involved. We expect Green to establish early control, and his faster hands should be enough to keep Gordon on his back foot all night.

Our best bet is Green winning by decision.

Pick: Green by decision (-110 at DraftKings)

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