Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban Ribovics Predictions, Picks & Odds

Lightweight standouts Nasrat Haqparast and Esteban Ribovics face off on the undercard of the UFC Fight Night on March 1.

The UFC odds have Ribovics as a -300 favorite and Haqparast as a +225 underdog. My Haqparast vs. Ribovics predictions side with the books in what should be a long bout.

Haqparast vs Ribovics prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Ribovics moneyline (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Fresh off his 2024 Fight of the Year contender against Daniel Zellhuber, Ribovics is stepping into another exciting matchup against Haqparast in a fight that’ll be more competitive than the odds are indicating. 

Both fighters are volume strikers by nature but differ in execution: Ribovics is extremely aggressive and creative, while Haqparast is more methodical. This sets up a classic bull vs. matador scenario. Ribovics will likely charge forward from the opening bell and hunt for a finish, forcing Haqparast to either counter effectively or risk getting run down.

Ribovics is relentless. His cardio is solid, and he can fight at a fast pace from start to finish. All his wins have come inside the distance — split evenly between knockouts and submissions. 

He can get takedowns when he has to and looks for submissions in those instances, but he’s primarily a striker. He struggles with solid wrestlers, as demonstrated in his UFC debut against Loik Radzhabov. Fortunately for Ribovics, he won’t find any of that from Haqparast.

Haqparast is a technically sound boxer with crisp combinations and solid footwork. He has 10 knockout wins, which is a result of accumulation more than blunt force trauma. Haqparast is a solid defender but tends to retreat in straight lines, making it easy to walk him down.

Bobby Green and Dan Hooker were able to pressure him effectively, forcing him into uncomfortable exchanges where he struggled to establish his rhythm, and they punished him for his predictability.

A major concern for Haqparast is his inability to fight effectively off his back foot. Against high-pressure opponents, he has been pushed out of his comfort zone and struggled to adjust. Ribovics’ non-stop aggression and willingness to absorb damage to land his shots will make life difficult for Haqparast.

I expect Ribovics to set the pace from the opening bell, keep Haqparast moving backward, and land the more damaging shots throughout the fight.

Best bet analysis
Conditioning won’t be an issue here, and while Ribovics can land vicious shots and should be more successful as the fight draws on, I don’t see him scoring an early stoppage.

Haqparast should have his moments to keep Ribovics on his toes, ensuring any dramatics occur late in the fight. 

Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban Ribovics odds

Method of Victory	Haqparast	Ribovics
To win outright	+210	-275
To win by KO/TKO	+575	+305
To win by decision	+440	+100
To win by submission	+3300	+1150
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-1.

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Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban Ribovics tale of the tape

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