Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira Odds, Picks & Predictions

Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez is set to headline this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card, bringing us a high-stakes showdown between two rising middleweights.

Pereira has shown a new level of maturity since moving to 185 pounds, and I expect it to work to his benefit when he takes on a streaking Hernandez in the latest UFC odds. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Hernandez vs Pereira prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pereira moneyline (+110 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pereira to win in Round 2 (+675 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The unfortunate thing about this fight is that somebody has to lose. It wouldn't surprise me, though, if both Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez find their way into the middleweight division's upper tier regardless of the outcome. Each enters the week on a hot streak and looks like a legitimate contender at middleweight, with Pereira putting his eight-fight win streak on the line against Hernandez’s five.

When Pereira entered the UFC, he was known as a human highlight reel, throwing unorthodox strikes and fans loved him for it. Since moving up to 185, he's toned down his offense for the better, becoming a patient, hard-hitting striker with excellent BJJ skills to fall back on. In fact, Pereira’s last two wins have been submissions, proving that he's dangerous in every aspect of his game.

Hernandez hasn’t lost a fight since Kevin Holland stopped him in 2020. He comes forward with exhausting pressure and will shoot for takedowns relentlessly. Once he gets his opponent down, he’ll either maul them into a submission or land punishing strikes to set up a later finish. Hernandez lands more strikes and takedowns than Pereira, landing 4.3 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy and 4.49 takedowns at 64%, compared to Pereira’s 3.1 strikes at 54% and 1.25 takedowns at 54%.

This fight is tough to call because both fighters are so well-equipped. If Pereira keeps it standing, Hernandez can strike with him and hold his ground. If Hernandez takes Pereira down, Pereira can defend submissions and get back to his feet.

However, Pereira’s movement, footwork, and angles will likely cause Hernandez problems. Holland didn’t need much to beat Hernandez to the punch, knocking him out inside the first round. Pereira may not have the pure striking power that Holland does, but he’s shown that he can deliver a big shot and is hard to pin down.

That's enough to give the Brazilian an edge in this sensational fight between two up-and-coming middleweights.

Best best analysis

This will be the first five-round fight for both fighters, so we’ll learn plenty about how these two fare beyond the third round. Three of Hernandez’s last five wins went into the third round and beyond, whereas Pereira’s last three dubs have all been first-round finishes.

I have a sinking feeling Pereira will get the jump on Hernandez, and he’ll need to handle business early as he doesn’t want to go into deep waters with a skillful grappler. I’m picking Pereira to win by second-round knockout.

Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira odds

Method of Victory	Hernandez	Pereira
To win outright	-140	+110
To win by KO/TKO	+450	+185
To win by decision	+850	+1,350
To win by submission	+175	+875
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-17.

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Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira tale of the tape

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