Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev Predictions, Picks & Odds

Manel Kape takes on Asu Almabayev in tonight's main event for UFC Fight Night betting in Las Vegas. This is a clash between the No. 6 ranked flyweight contender in Kape and the No. 8 ranked Almabayev, with the winner in line for a title shot. 

The money has come in on Almabayev, moving his UFC odds from +190 to +175, with Kape coming back at -215. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev predictions for Saturday, March 1.

Kape vs Almabayev prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Kape moneyline (-215 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Kape by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-160 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Almabayev is on a 17-fight win streak and is 4-0 in the UFC. Although he struggled to get his wrestling going in his latest bout against Matheus Nicolau, he knocked him down and controlled him for four minutes in the final round to earn the decision.

Meanwhile, Manel Kape lost in his UFC debut to current champ Alexandre Pantoja in 2021 and then dropped a controversial split-decision against Nicolau in his next bout. 

Since then, he's gone 5-1 and is fresh off an impressive knockout win against Bruno Silva. Despite getting kicked in the groin several times, Kape outstruck Silva 111-57 and stuffed all five of his takedown attempts before finishing him with punches in the third round.  

There's a narrative that Kape's defensive wrestling was exposed in his loss to Muhammad Mokaev last July, giving the wrestling-heavy Almabayev a path to victory. However, don't forget that Kape broke his toe in the second round and still showed good scrambling and get-up ability against Mokaev, who is a more suffocating grappler than Almabayev. 

Kape has an impressive 77% takedown defense, and he isn't easy to take down or control on the mat. He'll be able to keep this fight standing up enough for his superior striking and athleticism to shine. Kape is significantly faster with better hands and more power than Almabayev, which should be enough to get the win here.

Best bet analysis
Although I like Kape to win, his ML price is a tad too wide at -210, especially since he's been a bit gun-shy in the past when he fears being taken down. 

That said, he hasn't won by submission since 2018. I don't see him submitting a high-end grappler like Almabayev, and it's far more likely that he either wins a decision or finds a knockout.

That gives value to this double method to win prop, which chops his price down to -160.

Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev odds

Method of Victory	Kape	Almabayev
To win outright	-210	+175
To win by KO/TKO	+200	+1450
To win by decision	+185	+315
To win by submission	+1100	+875
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-1.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get up to $1,000 bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win when using our BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic