Amanda Lemos vs. Michelle Waterson is scheduled for three rounds in the strawweight division as a featured attraction at tonight’s edition of UFC Fight Night on ABC in Long Island. Both Lemos and Waterson are coming off losses, but bettors feel one fighter is clearly going to bounce back.
UFC odds have installed Lemos as a big favorite at -400 as she looks to get back on track to a title shot. Waterson, the +260 underdog, is in desperate need of a victory.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Waterson picks and predictions for July 16.
Lemos vs Waterson fight odds
Live odds courtesy of bet365.
Lemos vs Waterson method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Amanda Lemos | Michelle Waterson |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +260 | +1,600 |
| To win by Points | -105 | +420 |
| To win by Submission | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 13, 2022.
Lemos vs Waterson picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lemos vs Waterson betting preview
The heavy-handed Lemos has her work cut out for her against the durable Waterson, but she is up for the task. A first-round loss via triangle choke to Jessica Andrade snapped a five-fight win streak, but she remains a top bantamweight and is one of the division’s best finishers.
Of her 11 wins, she’s scored seven stoppages and two submissions. She lands 5.14 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy and has a takedown accuracy of 57% as well. The Brazilian’s fights last seven minutes on average, mainly due to her aggressive offense seeing her fire off strikes with bad intentions. In this fight, she’ll possess minor advantages in height and reach.
Waterson has been floating between strawweight and bantamweight for her past few fights with mixed success. “The Karate Hottie” has gone 2-3 in her last five fights and is coming off a decision loss to Marina Rodriguez 14 months ago. Fundamentally skilled and extremely tough, Waterson can always make for an exciting opponent, but her recent fortunes suggest she’s slowing down.
She has nine submission wins and a strong ground game, which means she’ll be on the lookout for chances to redirect Lemos’ offense right into a takedown. She averages 1.4 takedowns per fight with 0.8 submission attempts and defends 50% of significant strikes. Her conditioning and chin remain top-notch and she was stopped by strikes just once very early in her career.
Lemos uses a power jab and her Muay Thai kicks to push herself forward, so tightening up her shots to avoid giving Waterson a chance to clinch or take her down is her key to victory. For Waterson, she’ll have to rely on her chin and keep Lemos pinned on the mat when she gets her there to outlast her more powerful opponent.
Lemos vs Waterson tale of the tape
| Amanda Lemos | Michelle Waterson | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-3 |
| 115 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| 65 inches | Reach | 62 inches |
| 11-2-1 (7 KO) | Record | 18-9-0 (3 KO) |
Lemos vs Waterson UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Lemos ML
This is a bad style matchup for Waterson, as her path to victory consists of hoping she can mop up enough shots to find a takedown opportunity. Lemos is stronger, sharper, and has the better recent form of the two.
While Waterson is durable, and the threat of being taken down might give Lemos some pause, the Brazilian won’t be deterred from her game plan. Eventually, Lemos will back Waterosn up to the cage and wear her out with punishing body blows. If they do get into rough exchanges, Lemos is going to get the better of Waterson each time out.
All signs point to a clear Lemos win, and we’re inclined to follow those signs.
Prediction: Amanda Lemos moneyline (-400 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds
While Lemos is a big favorite to win, she won’t exactly mow Waterson down. This could be a tactical fight at times with both fighters fighting a range war in hopes of finding an opening. Waterson’s resilience may be her best quality, so even if outclassed, she’ll survive.
We think the best bet for this fight is the fight going over 2.5 rounds at -210. Lemos could overwhelm Waterson with her power, or Waterson could shock Lemos with a submission, but the fight will make it into the third round.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-210 at DraftKings)
