Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on February 26, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Makhachev was originally supposed to fight another Top 5 lightweight in Beneil Dariush but after Dariush pulled out with an injury, Green replaced him on short notice at a catchweight of 160 pounds.
Oddsmakers are expecting a lopsided bout with UFC betting lines installing Makhachev as a massive -909 favorite while Green comes back at +550.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green picks and predictions for Saturday, February 26.
Makhachev vs Green fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Makhachev vs Green method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Bobby Green | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,100 | +420 |
| To win by Points | +1,300 | +340 |
| To win by Submission | +2,200 | -115 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 23, 2022.
Makhachev vs Green picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Makhachev vs Green betting preview
Islam Makhachev is the No. 4-ranked lightweight contender and has won nine fights in a row, the fifth-longest active win streak in the UFC. He's coming off the most impressive victory of his career, submitting Top-10 lightweight Dan Hooker in the first round at UFC 267 last October.
A sambo specialist hailing from Dagestan, Makhachev trained for years with his close friend — and former UFC lightweight champ — Khabib Nurmagomedov. The 30-year-old is a terrific wrestler with ferocious ground-and-pound and strong submission skills.
Bobby "King" Green will be fighting on less than two weeks of rest after a unanimous decision win against Nasrat Haqparast on February 12. Green boasted a 188-76 advantage in significant strikes during that bout and is now 5-2 in his last seven bouts
The 35-year-old is an experienced veteran who competed in King of the Cage and Strikeforce before making his UFC debut in 2013. Green is a well-rounded fighter who combines strong wrestling with accurate striking and constant pressure for 15 minutes.
Green vs Makhachev tale of the tape
| Bobby Green | Islam Makhachev | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 166 lbs | Weight | 155.5 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 70.5 inches |
| 29-12-1 (9 KO) | Record | 20-1-0 (3 KO) |
Green vs Makhachev UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Makhachev (-909)
These odds are woefully lopsided for good reason, and while Green should be lauded for taking this fight on short notice, Makhachev is the sort of fighter you definitely need a full camp to prepare for. Green does have a solid wrestling base but there are levels to grappling and Makhachev (like Khabib before him) is in a different stratosphere.
If Green was capable of knocking Makhachev out, that would at least make him dangerous when Islam shoots for a takedown. However, while Green has high output, he doesn't land many impactful strikes, and in his last 16 fights going all the way back to 2013, he has just one win by way of stoppage.
With Green unable to get the finish, Makhachev will use his relentless wrestling to wear him down and get the victory. That said, with such crazy odds we're avoiding Makhachev on the moneyline and looking elsewhere to find betting value.
Best bet: Makhachev by submission (-115)
We're all disappointed not to see Dariush in this one because that previously-scheduled showdown looked like a lightweight title eliminator. But Makhachev has got to be the most disappointed person out there. Dariush represented a highly-ranked foe that could have catapulted him into championship consideration, and now he'll face a fringe Top-15 guy in Green instead.
It's likely that Makhachev knows the importance of a dominating performance against Green and realizes that a decision win won't do anything to move his stock up. Look for Makhachev to hunt for a finish, and with his last three victories coming by way of submission, that seems like the best bet.
