Rose Namajunas vs Tracy Cortez Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Going the Distance

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

Namjunas is the former women's strawweight champion but she's moved up to flyweight where she'll face Cortez who took this fight on short notice after Maycee Barber dropped out. UFC odds have Namajunas as a -205 favorite with Cortez coming back at +175. 

Here are my best free UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez predictions and picks for July 13. 

Namajunas vs Cortez prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Namajunas ML (-205 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Namajunas by points (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Cortez has won 11 fights in a row and has gone a perfect 6-0 in the octagon but this is a big step up in competition for her. The majority of her wins have come against mediocre opponents and her best victory came last September against Jasmine Jasudavicius who is the No. 15 ranked contender in the division.

Namajunas is at No. 6 in the rankings and as the former two-time champ at 115 pounds, she has only lost to top-tier fighters. She has beaten current strawweight champ Zhang Weili both times she faced her and she's no stranger to headlining events and being in five-round bouts. 

That experience will prove invaluable against Cortez who has never gone past the 15-minute mark and only touched down in Denver this week, not giving her much time to adjust to the altitude. 

Cortez doesn't have much finishing ability and tends to rely on her wrestling to win fights. However, her takedown percentage is just 46% and if she's unable to take this fight to the mat, Namajunas will use her crisp striking to pick her apart. Even if Cortez is able to get a takedown, Namajunas has the scrambling ability to get out of bad spots and dangerous grappling that she can use to sink in submissions. 

Cortez isn't as skilled or as experienced as Namajunas and she has fewer paths to victory here. 

Best best analysis

This fight is installed at -300 to go the distance which makes plenty of sense. Namajunas has several highlight-reel finishes on her resume but she's been more of a decision fighter lately with her last four fights going to the judge's cards — including three that went 25 minutes.

Cortez was already in a fight camp to face Miranda Maverick on July 20 and she's had more than two weeks to prepare for Namajunas. So while I think she'll lose, she should be able to at least make this competitive and not get finished. 

Meanwhile, Cortez's last seven fights have gone the distance. For the most part, she relies on takedowns and control to win fights. While she stayed on her feet and outstruck Jasudavicius, that approach won't work against Namajunas so expect her to revert to a wrestling gameplan. 

That should drain time off the clock and combined with the possibility of both fighters gassing out in the championship rounds due to the elevation, should result in this fight going the distance. Since I like Namajunas to get the victory, it makes sense to back her to win by points at +100.

Rose Namajunas vs Tracy Cortez odds

Method of Victory	Namajunas	Cortez
To win outright	-210	+175
To win by KO/TKO	+475	+1,800
To win by points	+100	+230
To win by submission	+900	+1,900
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-10.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Rose Namajunas vs Tracy Cortez tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic