UFC Fight Night Rosas Jr. vs Turcios Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Time Is On Your Side

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios is the featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card and one of our select events for UFC betting. 

Rosas is an evolving talent and a grappling menace, but Turcios may have all the trouble he can handle in a fight that looks to be too close to call.

UFC odds have Rosas a -240 favorite, with Turcios a live dog at +190. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios predictions from the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.

Rosas Jr. vs Turcios prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Rosas moneyline (-240 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-150 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The UFC continues to move 19-year-old Rosas at a steady pace as the grappling phenom prepares for a tough challenge from Turcios. From a grappling standpoint, Rosas would be a lead-pipe lock if that's the only basis we'd focus on, but his striking is so raw that if Turcios manages to keep the fight standing, it can get ugly in a hurry. 

Now, Rosas isn't a terrible striker, but it's an obvious hole in his game that has been exposed once before when Christian Rodriguez was able to keep him standing in that unexpected defeat. He will have a very hard time winning this fight if he can't get Turcios on the ground.

Lucky for him, Turcios has substandard takedown defense and was brought to the mat seven times in his last fight against Kevin Natividad. He was able to scramble back to his feet and relied on his volume striking to eke out a decision, but Rosas being the stronger ground technician won't give him the same escape opportunities.

It will be up to Turcios to immediately throw strikes and flurry when Rosas creeps forward, especially because he knows he'll be aiming for a takedown, and cannot let him close the distance at his leisure. Because Rosas is so aggressive with his movement and excels at getting inside, it all comes down to what Turcios does when he does hit the ground. 

The longer he stays down there, the less time he'll have to steal back the rounds with his work rate and the possibility of a submission gets dangerously high. At the same time, Turcios is not a big striker and relies on volume, so he isn't going to land the kind of shots that will make Rosas wary of shooting in.

I don't expect Rosas to use this fight to test his striking progress. He'll stick to what works, exploiting Turcios' lacking ground defense and that should be enough to make him the pick in a fight where the odds don’t reflect how close it can be.

Best best analysis

It doesn't bode well for Turcios that he's been taken down thirteen times in his last three fights, and while he's managed to win those fights where he kept getting dumped on the mat, Rosas is arguably the best wrestler he's faced. Rosas will ground and pound, go for submission attempts, or just frustrate him by pinning him down and establishing dominance as time goes by.

However, Turcios manages to not just get off the mat but doesn’t seem phased physically or mentally. He just keeps coming forward and tries to recapture the momentum with his volume and pressure. It’s worked to the point that in those fights where it would be certain he’d lose due to the number of takedowns he’s absorbed, that he’d lose on the cards, but he actually won those fights because he was simply overwhelming with his striking.   

That means Rosas will have his work cut out for him. He’ll win the fight the longer he can grapple and keep Turcios on the ground, but Turcios has a solid chance of beating Rosas if he manages to stay on his feet for the majority of the fight. Considering Rosas’ grappling and Turcios’ lack of stopping power, this could be a closely contested fight where the winner won’t pull ahead until later in the contest.

My best bet for the fight is that it goes over 2.5 rounds.

Rosas Jr. vs Turcios odds

Method of Victory	Paul Rosas Jr.	Ricky Turcios
To win outright	-240	+195
To win by KO/TKO	+750	+850
To win by points	+180	+375
To win by submission	+200	+1,300
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-6.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Rosas Jr. vs Turcios tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic