Sean Strickland vs. Nassourdine Imavov is the main event for the first UFC Fight Night event of 2023 on Saturday night.
Imavov was originally expected to headline this event against Kelvin Gastelum at middleweight, but Gastelum withdrew on Monday due to an injury while training.
Strickland stepped up to replace Gastelum despite going five rounds at the previous fight night even just a month ago. This matchup will now take place at light heavyweight and UFC betting odds opened with Strickland as a slim +100 underdog before moving to a pick'em.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov picks and predictions for January 14.
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov fight odds
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Sean Strickland | Nassourdine Imavov |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | OTB | OTB |
| To win by Points | OTB | OTB |
| To win by Submission | OTB | OTB |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 14, 2022.
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov betting preview
Sean "Tarzan" Strickland is the No. 7 ranked middleweight contender but this bout will take place at 205 pounds due to taking this fight on short notice.
He's fresh off a close decision loss to Jared Cannonier which one judge scored 49-46 in his favor. That was a much better performance than his previous bout where he was knocked out by current champ Alex Pereira in the first round.
Prior to his defeat against Pereira, Strickland had won six consecutive fights, defeating ranked opponents like Jack Hermansson and Uriah Hall.
The 31-year-old is a high-volume striker with crisp technical boxing. He has grown in popularity due to his aggressiveness in the octagon and his outspoken personality outside of it.
Nassourdine Imavov is at No. 12 in the middleweight rankings and has won three fights in a row, most recently defeating Joaquin Buckley by unanimous decision in September.
He's 9-1 in his last 10 fights, including 4-1 in the promotion, with his only loss coming by a majority decision to Phil Hawes in 2021. He was controlled on the mat in that contest but has shown improved grappling since then with six submission attempts in his last two fights while finishing Edmen Shahbazyen from a mounted crucifix position.
That said, Imavov is at his best on his feet. He has good lateral movement and throws accurate strikes from a variety of different angles.
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov tale of the tape
| Nassourdine Imavov | Sean Strickland | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 31 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 12-3 (5 KO) | Record | 25-5 (10 KO) |
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Strickland
Both fighters are solid defensive wrestlers but prefer to keep fights standing up. This should be primarily contested standing up and while Imavov is crafty with his striking, Strickland is more technical with his boxing.
It's wild to think that Strickland is fighting so soon after going 25 minutes with one of the division's hardest hitters in Cannonier. It's a testament to his durability that he's capable of accepting this fight but not having to drop below 205 pounds will help and Imavov doesn't have the power to diffuse his forward pressure.
This is also the first five-round fight of Imavov's career and he has shown a tendency to gas in the third round of his bouts. That's bad news against someone like Strickland who has excellent conditioning and has seen three of his last four fights go 25 minutes.
Expect Strickland to pump his jab and out-volume Imavov over five rounds.
Prediction: Strickland moneyline (-105 at PointsBet)
Best bet: Strickland by decision
If Imamov wants to win, he needs to come out early with some urgency. Once Strickland settles in he's going to start winning rounds, and the longer this goes the more this favors Strickland who has more experience and better cardio.
Strickland's decision loss to Cannonier was razor close and six of his previous eight wins have come by points. Look for him to win by decision against Imavov who is facing a significant step up in competition.
Pick: Strickland by decision (+250 at bet365)
