Jean Silva vs Melsik Baghdasaryan Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC Fight Night heads to Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle this Saturday, and the main card features a featherweight bout between unranked contenders Jean Silva and Melsik Baghdasaryan.

Current UFC odds have Silva listed as a massive betting favorite at -500 via BET99, while Baghdasaryan returns at +400. Here are my free Silva vs. Baghdasaryan predictions for Saturday’s event in Seattle.

Jean Silva vs Melsik Baghdasaryan prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Silva moneyline (-500 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Silva by decision (+205 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Melsik Baghdasaryan earned a contract to the UFC with a unanimous decision victory over Dennis Buzukja on Dana White’s Contender Series. Since that career-changing night, he has gone 3-1 across four bouts.

However, I am not sold on the surface-level appearance of that record. Those three wins came against Collin Anglin, Bruno Souza, and Tucker Lutz.

Anglin and Souza went a combined 0-4 in the UFC prior to getting cut, while Lutz was also served his walking papers following a three-fight skid between 2021 and 2023. The only fighter Baghdasaryan has faced in the UFC who is still under contract is Josh Culibao, who has also lost each of his past three fights after submitting Baghdasaryan in the second round of their bout at UFC 284.

Clearly, Baghdasaryan’s resume leaves a lot to be desired.

On the other hand, Jean Silva is coming off a phenomenal rookie season. He finished runner-up to fellow Fighting Nerds teammate Carlos Prates for Rookie of the Year, winning each of his first three bouts in the UFC by KO/TKO within a six-month span.

Silva is now rested and aiming to move to 4-0 in the UFC, a result oddsmakers clearly expect as much with his steep price tag.

Best bet analysis
While Silva winning this bout is certainly not a hot take, I have no interest in his moneyline. That leaves the “winning method” market at BET99, which lists Silva at +625 to win by submission, +195 to win by decision, and even money to win by KO/TKO.

Using process of elimination, it feels like a safe play to remove the 6/1 submission prop from the equation. Silva is a striker and hasn’t even attempted a takedown over his past two fights.

Meanwhile, Baghdasaryan is also a striker who has not attempted a single takedown over his four fights in the UFC. This fight is likely to stay standing until someone gets knocked out or the final bell rings.

The key question is whether Silva will finish Baghdasaryan on the feet or coast to a decision victory. 

At nearly 2/1, I believe the value is on the latter.

Baghdasaryan is a tough opponent and has never been knocked out across 10 professional MMA bouts. He has not even been knocked down across his four fights in the UFC.

Silva certainly carries the power to do so, but Baghdasaryan also possesses the chin to withstand the heat for 15 minutes. That said, this matchmaking seems like a tune-up opportunity for Silva after his hand injury, and I think the clearest path to victory is a 15-minute striking masterclass in preparation for a ranked opponent in his next bout.

Jean Silva vs Melsik Baghdasaryan odds

Method of Victory	Silva	Baghdasaryan
To win outright	-500	+400
To win by KO/TKO	+1150	+100
To win by decision	+750	+205
To win by submission	+3000	+600
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-22.

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Jean Silva vs Melsik Baghdasaryan tale of the tape

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