Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy is on the main card for UFC 266 betting on September 25 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Shevchenko is the UFC women's flyweight champion and will make her sixth defense of the title against the veteran Murphy. This is the most lopsided UFC betting line of the night, with Shevchenko installed as a whopping -1,200 favorite while Murphy comes back at +700.
Here are our best free Shevchenko vs. Murphy picks and predictions for the flyweight championship at UFC 266 on Saturday, September 25.
Shevchenko vs Murphy fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Shevchenko vs Murphy method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Valentina Shevchenko | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Win by KO/TKO | -120 | +1,000 |
| Win by Points | +200 | +1,400 |
| Win by Submission | +500 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of September 20, 2021.
Shevchenko vs Murphy betting preview
Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko is fresh off a second-round knockout victory over Jessica Andrade in April. The 33-year-old is 14-2 in her last 15 fights, with both defeats coming by decision to Amanda Nunes at bantamweight.
With a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai, Shevchenko is known for her speed, precision, and technical striking ability, but she's also a strong wrestler with 23 takedowns over her last five fights.
"Lucky" Lauren Murphy enters UFC 266 on a five-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Joanne Calderwood by split decision in June. The 38-year-old is 7-4 in the octagon, with two wins coming by knockout and each loss coming via decision.
Murphy is a well-rounded fighter who combines good boxing with solid grappling but doesn't really stand out in any one area.
Shevchenko vs Murphy tale of the tape
| Valentina Shevchenko | Lauren Murphy | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 66.5 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 22-3-0 (7 KO) | Record | 15-4-0 (8 KO) |
Shevchenko vs Murphy UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Moneyline Shevchenko (-1,200) - Murphy is on an impressive winning streak but the odds are this lopsided for a reason. This is a relatively thin division and she is getting this title shot because Bullet is cleaning out the competition on her way to becoming the greatest women's flyweight of all time.
Shevchenko is better in virtually every area in terms of skill and physical ability. And her only two losses in the last decade came in a higher weight class against the women's GOAT in Nunes.
It's also worth mentioning that two of Murphy's last four wins came by split decision and she arguably got the worst of the striking exchanges in both of those bouts. She will be easily outclassed on her feet in this one.
PREDICTION: Shevchenko by KO/TKO (-120) - Part of the reason it's so tough to bet on Shevchenko fights is not just her insanely juiced lines but also the fact that she wins by every method. Of her 21 career wins, she has seven wins by knockout, seven by submission, and seven by decision.
That said, three of her last five wins have been by knockout and Murphy has a forward pressure style which should lead to a lot of damage from Shevchenko's terrific counter-striking abilities. Expect Shevchenko to put away Murphy early with her Muay Thai skill and brutal strikes in the clinch.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 Rounds (-120) - Interestingly enough, half of Bullet's last 10 fights have gone the distance with the other five ending within the first 12 minutes.
The big question is whether Murphy has the toolbox to survive past the midway point of Round 3. I don't see it. Shevchenko is simply too fast, athletic, and skilled no matter where this fight ends up and I don't think Murphy has the ability to drag this one out.
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