Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio is on the main card for UFC 269 betting on Saturday, December 11.
This should be a banger between a pair of striking specialists looking to climb the welterweight rankings. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight, with UFC betting lines having this matchup set as a pick'em.
Here are our best free Neal vs. Ponzinibbio picks and predictions for UFC 269 action from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Neal vs Ponzinibbio fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Neal vs Ponzinibbio method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Geoff Neal | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +195 | +300 |
| To win by Points | +450 | +230 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of December 7, 2021.
Neal vs Ponzinibbio pick
Click on pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Neal vs Ponzinibbio betting preview
Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal is the No. 12-ranked welterweight contender and is coming off back-to-back unanimous defeats to Neil Magny and Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. Before those losses, Neal had reeled off seven straight wins – including his first six bouts in the promotion.
Neal is a high-pressure striker with explosive power in his hands and feet. Seven of his last nine wins have come by way of knockout.
It's been an inspirational comeback for Santiago "The Argentine Dagger" Ponzinibbio, who defeated Miguel Baeza in June for his first win in almost three years. The Argentinian had been one of the hottest names in the promotion, riding a seven-fight winning streak and jumping up to No. 7 in the welterweight rankings after knocking out Neil Magny in 2018. However, a staph infection almost forced him to retire and inactivity dropped him from the rankings.
After 26 months away from the octagon, Ponzinibbio returned in February and was knocked out in the first round by Li Jingliang. He bounced back from that defeat with that decision win over Baeza that earned Fight of the Night honors. Ponzinibbio is a pressure fighter with athleticism and knockout power.
Neal vs Ponzinibbio tale of the tape
| Geoff Neal | Santiago Ponzinibbio | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot |
| 171 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 13-4-0 (8 KO) | Record | 29-4-0 (15 KO) |
Neal vs Ponzinibbio UFC prediction and betting pick
Fight to end in KO/TKO (-140)
Both Neal and Ponzinibbio went the distance in their previous bouts but these are two bangers who typically see finishes. Six of Ponzinibbio's last nine fights have been ended by KO/TKO while five of Neal's six wins in the octagon have come by stoppage.
A big reason why Neal lost his last two fights was that he had a tough time finding his distance against the longer Magny and kick-based tyle of Thompson. However, Ponzinibbio likes to move forward and will fight within Neal's striking range, which will make him less gun shy and more likely to let his hands go.
While Ponzinibbio couldn't get the finish against Baeza, he landed 98 significant strikes to his head and that was with his base severely damaged by leg kicks. With both of these guys preferring to engage in close and fighting out of opposite stances (which leave them open to body kicks), expect this one to end in a knockout.
