Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O'Malley is on the main card for UFC 269 betting on Saturday, December 11.
This should be an intriguing matchup between a pair of up-and-coming strikers in the bantamweight division. O'Malley may be unranked but he's one of the most hyped fighters in the promotion and UFC betting lines reflect that with "Sugar" installed as a -360 favorite with Paiva the underdog at +255.
Here are our best free Paiva vs. O'Malley picks and predictions for UFC 269 on December 11 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Paiva vs O'Malley fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Paiva vs O'Malley method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,100 | +110 |
| To win by Points | +500 | +260 |
| To win by Submission | +850 | +1,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of December 6, 2021.
Paiva vs O'Malley pick
Click on pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Paiva vs O'Malley betting preview
Raulian Paiva is fresh off a majority decision victory over O'Malley's MMA Lab teammate Kyler Phillips in July. Paiva closed as a +220 underdog in that fight, which was his promotion debut at bantamweight after struggling to make weight at 125 pounds.
The 26-year-old has now won three fights in a row and is 4-2 inside the octagon. He has good technical striking ability and does a solid job of working on the outside.
"Sugar" Sean O'Malley is fresh off a TKO win against Kris Moutinho in July where he outstruck the promotional newcomer so badly that referee Herb Dean stopped the fight with less than 30 seconds remaining. That gave O'Malley back-to-back knockout victories and improved his record to 6-1 inside the octagon.
The only loss of Sugar's MMA career occurred last August against Marlon Vera when he was finished with ground-and-pound after collapsing to the mat due to drop foot.
The 27-year-old is a long, athletic, and explosive striker who loves to push the pace. He's very capable as a grappler but prefers to keep things standing up, where he can throw punches and kicks from a variety of angles.
Paiva vs O'Malley tale of the tape
| Raulian Paiva | Sean O'Malley | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 69 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 21-3-0 (4 KO) | Record | 14-1-0 (10 KO) |
Paiva vs O'Malley UFC prediction and betting pick
O'Malley by KO/TKO (-110)
Paiva is 4-2 in his last six fights but he could very easily have just one victory from those bouts. He won a close split-decision against Allan Nascimento on Contender Series Brazil, took a controversial decision against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and was almost finished in the first round by Phillips with the majority of MMA media outlets ruling that fight a draw.
There's a reason that Paiva fought for most of his career at 135 pounds and tried to drop down to 125 in the UFC despite having such a tough time making weight. While his size may have helped him in the lower division, it won't help him in this class, especially against guys like O'Malley who are bigger, longer, and have more power.
Paiva won't be able to keep O'Malley on the outside and if he tries to pressure Sugar, he could find himself walking straight into his opponent's dangerous counters. With O'Malley's last four wins coming by KO/TKO, bet on another stoppage from Sugar.
