Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker 2 is the main event for UFC 271 betting on February 12.
This should be a fantastic rematch with these striking specialists separating from the rest of the pack at 185 pounds. Whittaker will be looking for revenge after losing the middleweight title to Adesanya three years ago but oddsmakers don't expect him to get it, with UFC odds opening with Adesanya as a significant favorite at -250.
Here are our best free UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker II picks and predictions for Saturday, February 12 from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Adesanya vs Whittaker fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Adesanya vs Whittaker method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Israel Adesanya | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +170 | +600 |
| To win by Points | +175 | +450 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +1,300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of February 6, 2022.
Adesanya vs Whittaker picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Adesanya vs Whittaker betting preview
Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Marvin Vettori in June. That victory allowed him to bounce back from the first loss of his MMA career when he moved up to lightweight to unsuccessfully challenge Jan Blachowicz for the 205-pound title.
Adesanya is still unbeaten at middleweight and his most impressive victory in the octagon came against Whittaker in 2019 when he knocked out the former champ in the second round to claim the belt.
Adesanya is a former professional kickboxer with 75 wins under his belt. The Last Stylebender is arguably the best technical striker in the UFC and uses his length, quickness, kicking ability, and deceptive power to devastating effect.
Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker is the No. 1-ranked middleweight contender and has won three fights in a row since his defeat against Adesanya. In his most recent bout last April, he picked up a unanimous decision victory after outstriking Kelvin Gastelum 150-62 and taking him down four times.
Whittaker is a volume striker who combines highly technical kickboxing ability with formidable wrestling ability.
Adesanya vs Whittaker tale of the tape
| Israel Adesanya | Robert Whittaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 31 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 73.5 inches |
| 21-1-0 (15 KOs) | Record | 24-5-0 (9 KOs) |
Adesanya vs Whittaker UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Adesanya (-250)
With how dominant Adesanya looked in that first matchup, it's easy to see why oddsmakers are giving the defending champ an implied win probability of 71.4%. Adesanya danced around Whittaker's strikes in the opening round before dropping him to the mat at the end of the frame. In the second round, he picked Whittaker apart and eventually finished him with punches.
It's tough to see Whittaker winning this one with Adesanya having such a massive reach advantage to go with his superior movement. As good as Whittaker's striking is, Adesanya is on a different level. He also has the takedown defense to sprawl and fight off any grappling attempts by the challenger.
Look for Adesanya to use his length and speed to fight on the outside and pick Whittaker apart.
Best bet: Adesanya by points (+175)
While Adesanya will likely get the victory, we don't see him doing it in the same way that he did back in 2019. A big reason Whittaker got finished was because of a terrible game plan that saw him chase Adesanya around the octagon while throwing looping shots.
That aggressiveness proved very costly against Adesanya's counter-striking ability but if Whittaker can show more patience and try to implement his wrestling, he should at least be able to make it to the final bell.
Keep in mind that five of Adesanya's last seven fights have gone the distance (including four that went 25 minutes) and his only finishes during that span came against Whittaker and Paulo Costa, who also charged recklessly.
