Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Christian Rodriguez is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 287 undercard tonight.
The UFC’s youngest prodigy is taking a step up in class on another big card, and it’s the perfect opportunity for Rodriguez to play spoiler. UFC odds see Rosas as a -225 favorite, while the once-beaten Rodriguez is a +190 underdog.
Here are our free betting picks and predictions for Rosas vs. Rodriguez in Miami.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Christian Rodriguez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Raul Rosas Jr. | Christian Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +950 | +900 |
| To win by Points | +230 | +420 |
| To win by Submission | +160 | +950 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on April 8, 2023.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Christian Rodriguez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Raul Rosas Jr. vs Christian Rodriguez betting preview
The UFC couldn’t wait to show off its shiny new toy again. Raul Rosas Jr. is an 18-year-old grappling phenom who might be fast-tracked to big fights. In his way at UFC 287 is Christian Rodriguez, who serves as a stiffer test than Rosas’ predictable conquest of Jay Perrin last December.
It’s easy to see why the UFC is investing so heavily in Rosas. He’s a bonafide attraction that has long-term potential with the company and fits the mold as a dominant grappler. While he hasn’t gone through the grinder yet, Rosas shows a lot of promise and might show out once again under the big lights.
He’s in for a tougher fight with Rodriguez, though it’s against another opponent who is weak against his style. With 4.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.5 submission attempts in the same time frame, Rosas is likely to get Rodriguez on the mat more than once during the fight. Though Rodriguez has one loss, it came in a grapple-heavy contest against Jonathan Pearce, who scored six takedowns during the fight.
Rodriguez bounced back from the loss to Pearce, which came one weight class heavier at featherweight. A crisp striker with UFC experience and a four-inch reach advantage, Rodriguez must keep Rosas on the outside and stuff any takedowns that come his way. One thing about Rodriguez is that he can get taken down, but he’s resilient and hard to keep down.
If Rodriguez pulls this off, he cannot afford to hit the canvas. That is easier said than done, as he’s been taken down 10 times in his last three fights. He’ll need to invest in his striking and plenty of movement to keep Rosas off him and hope that the young man is a one-trick pony when it comes to his offense.
This figures to be a harder fight for Rosas than Perrin. Rodriguez is in his prime and fought physically larger fighters than his younger opponent, and he can be just as aggressive on the ground to nullify Rosas’ work.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Christian Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Raul Rosas Jr. | Christian Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 67 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 7-0 (1 KO) | Record | 8-1 (3 KO) |
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Christian Rodriguez UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Rosas ML
The reason why we know Rodriguez is tough on the ground is that he gets put on it…a lot. Rosas is a physically strong fighter who will get stronger, but he’ll have to handle a striker who has good cardio and is meant to serve as a step-up. We should get a better idea of how Rosas’ striking defense holds up because he’s not going to strafe Rodriguez like Perrin.
Ultimately, Rodriguez is supposed to be a tough test that Rosas can pass. The poor takedown defense will doom him, even if he does win the striking battle. If this does get out of the first round, it will be interesting to see how Rodriguez aims to sap Rosas’ gas tank.
Either way, expect Rosas to win this one.
Prediction: Rosas moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Rosas by submission
He might not take Rodriguez down six or seven times, but Rosas won’t need to. He’ll be quick enough to close the distance and use his busy hands to get Rodriguez’s guard up, opening him up to hit the canvas. Once Rosas gets him down there, there’s a great chance the fight could end with a submission.
We like Rodriguez’s poor takedown defense to leave that possibility open, and we’re making Rosas winning by submission our best bet for the fight.
Pick: Rosas by submission (+165 at DraftKings)
