Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on July 22 from the O2 Arena in London, England.
This bout marks Aspinall's return to the octagon after the rising heavyweight contender suffered a brutal knee injury almost a year ago. Oddsmakers expect him to get back to his pre-injury form with UFC betting odds having Aspinall installed as a -450 favorite and Tybura coming back at +350.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura picks and predictions for Saturday, July 22.
Aspinall vs Tybura fight odds
Aspinall vs Tybura method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Tom Aspinall | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | -150 | +600 |
| To win by Points | +1,100 | +1,400 |
| To win by Submission | +380 | +1,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 19, 2023.
Aspinall vs Tybura picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best UFC bonuses
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Tom Aspinall to win in Round 1 BOOSTED to +275 at Betway! Bet Now
B) Molly McCann to win in Round 1 BOOSTED to +350 at Caesars! Bet Now
C) Get a 20% profit boost on any UFC bet every week at Unibet! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Aspinall vs Tybura betting preview
Tom Aspinall is the No. 5 ranked heavyweight contender despite coming off a loss last July when he tore his MCL and meniscus just 15 seconds into his fight against Curtis Blaydes. That snapped an eight-fight winning streak for Aspinall who had surged up the rankings after finishing Top-10 heavyweights like Sergei Spivak and Alexander Volkov in the first round.
The 30-year-old is a very well-rounded fighter that can win wherever the fight goes. He has strong technical boxing ability with quick hands and knockout power, while also boasting a strong grappling game and high-end submission skills.
Covers UFC betting tools
Marcin Tybura is coming off a unanimous decision win against Blagoy Ivanov in February which was his seventh victory in his last eight trips to the octagon.
The 37-year-old is an active heavyweight that has fought 17 times in the UFC since 2016. He does his best work in the clinch and on the mat where he can use his wrestling to grind down his opponents.
Aspinall vs Tybura tale of the tape
| Tom Aspinall | Marcin Tybura | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 37 |
| 6-foot-5 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 251 lbs | Weight | 254 lbs |
| 78 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 12-3 (9 KOs) | Record | 24-7 (4 KOs) |
Aspinall vs Tybura UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Aspinall
Tybura does several things pretty well but he doesn't really stand out in any area and will be at a huge disadvantage when it comes to skill, speed, and athleticism against Aspinall.
While heavyweight fights can be volatile because so many guys have one-touch power, Tybura isn't one of those guys. In fact, seven of his last nine wins have come by decision so he lacks the finishing ability to pull off the upset.
On the feet, Aspinall is far more technical and dangerous and even if Tybura is able to take this fight to the mat, Aspinall's jiu-jistu gives him the edge there as well.
That said, this moneyline number is way too lopsided to back the massive favorite (especially coming off that injury) so look somewhere else for better value.
Prediction: Aspinall ML (-450 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Aspinall by knockout in Rd 1 or 2
Aspinall is a dangerous grappler with a black belt in BJJ, but his offensive wrestling might be compromised by that knee injury. Tybura is also at his best when he can implement his own wrestling and there's a bigger gulf between these two in the striking department. That means Aspinall will likely look to keep this fight at range where he can use his faster hands and more accurate boxing to crack the slow-footed Tybura when he tries to close the gap.
Tyubura has won seven of his last eight fights but he's faced some pretty weak competition during that span, and before that stretch he was knocked out in three of his previous four bouts.
Aspinall has never seen the third round in his 15-fight career and 11 of his 12 victories have come inside the first round. While he might be a bit more tentative in the early going and might not necessarily rack up another first-round finish he should be able to starch Tybura before the end of the second frame.
Pick: Aspinall by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 (-120 at FanDuel)
