The New York Liberty will look to close in on clinching the No. 1 seed in the WNBA Playoffs as they visit the struggling Los Angeles Sparks on Wednesday night.
The Liberty (26-5) are heavy favorites in the WNBA odds over the Sparks (6-24), who sit in last place in large part due to their current seven-game losing streak.
While the Liberty are a dominant team, they’ve struggled to pay out for bettors when they’ve been big favorites this year. I’ll look for that trend to continue tonight in my free Liberty vs. Sparks predictions and WNBA picks for August 28.
Liberty vs Sparks predictions
My best bet
Sparks +13.5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
The New York Liberty have had their way with the Los Angeles Sparks over the last three seasons, with New York winning eight straight games in this series. That includes three relatively straightforward victories this year, including a 103-68 throttling on August 15. If you’re betting on someone to win tonight’s game, you should pick the Liberty at almost any odds.
But when it comes to the spread, there’s another story at play, one that I’ve talked about a lot this season when covering New York. The Liberty are winning, but they’re rarely scoring the kinds of blowouts you might expect against squads such as the Sparks.
As a result, New York has been a horrible team for backers when they’ve been big favorites. Overall, the Liberty have covered just twice as a double-digit favorite all year long despite winning by an average of 9.9 points per game on the season. It’s an odd dynamic, one that suggests the Liberty are playing down to their opponents just a bit.
We do have to consider the fact that the Sparks are struggling through their worst play of the season right now, as they have lost seven straight games and nine of their last 10. Yet even in this stretch, it hasn’t been easy for opponents to cover big spreads against Los Angeles. The Sparks are 3-1 against the spread in their last four games, twice covering as double-digit underdogs on the road to elite teams in the Connecticut Sun and Las Vegas Aces.
Meanwhile, the Liberty are 14-2 in their last 16 games. But during that stretch, New York has been a 10+ points favorite in six games and has covered only once in those contests. Even when they are pulling away from the entire league, the Liberty don’t seem able to assert themselves as much as we’d expect against the weakest teams in the league.
The one thing that suggests New York could cover tonight is the fact that it scored that 35-point win against Los Angeles in their last meeting. But a full season of data should always mean more to us than one outlier. I’m taking the Sparks to cover.
Liberty vs Sparks same-game parlay (SGP)
Sparks +13.5
Over 165.5
Breanna Stewart 18+ points
I’m taking the Sparks to cover as the centerpiece of my same-game parlay tonight, and I’m pairing it with the Over. These teams have combined to score at least 171 points in each of their first three matchups this year, including in New York’s blowout win two weeks ago.
To round out this SGP, I’m taking Liberty star Breanna Stewart to score at least 18 points tonight. Stewart has hit this total in seven of her last eight games, and has also done so in two of her three games against Los Angeles this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Sparks odds
Liberty vs Sparks live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Sparks WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Sparks opening odds
- Spread: New York -12.5 (-115) | Los Angeles +12.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: New York -900 | Los Angeles +600
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 (-110) | Under 163.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty have gone 15-16 against the spread this season, with the Sparks putting up a similar 14-15-1 ATS record.
- New York is 2-12 ATS this year when favored by at least 10 points. Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS when it is at least a 10-point underdog.
- The Under holds a 17-13 edge when the Sparks play and is 16-15 in the Liberty’s games this year.
- Los Angeles is playing to an average total of 165.2 points per game, while New York’s average total comes in at 161.1 points.
Liberty vs Sparks trend
The Sparks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Liberty. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sparks.
Liberty vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WWOR, Spectrum SportsNet |
Liberty vs Sparks latest injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Cameron Brink F (Out), Julie Allemand G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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