Mercury vs Mystics Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Tuesday’s WNBA Game

For a few weeks, the Phoenix Mercury looked like dark horse title contenders. Winning five out of seven in early June warranted notice, but since then, the Mercury have dropped five out of nine. The Washington Mystics may be just above the bottom of the WNBA, but they are not notably worse than Phoenix right now.

Our free WNBA picks will not endorse a Tuesday morning upset, but there's reason to bet on sloppy basketball in our Mercury vs. Mystics predictions before tip at 11:30 a.m. on July 16.

Mercury vs Mystics predictions

My best bet
Over 168.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
These camp day games are one of the best pieces of the WNBA. They welcome fans who otherwise often would not be able to get to a game, those stands are as loud as ever thanks to the overjoyed cheers from sections packed with children.

The players recognize that value and take the games seriously, even if they're tipping off before noon, not exactly in line with the usual rhythms of the in-season schedule.

Taking the game seriously does not mean focus may not be lacking — again, these tips are 7-9 hours earlier than these players are accustomed to; Phoenix will be playing at 8:30 a.m. PST.

Diminished focus most shows up defensively, both in good times and in bad for these two teams. In the last month, the Mystics rank No. 9 in defensive rating, with the Mercury next at No. 10.

Both teams play at a reasonable pace — No. 6 in the last month from Washington, No. 4 from Phoenix — while enjoying offensive competence. Their failures come, almost exclusively, on defense.

If there is any one part of the game to put on display for the children in attendance, instinct will make it shotmaking. If there is any one part of the game that runs counter to early-morning sluggishness, it should be disciplined defense.

Mercury vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 168.5

Diana Taurasi Over 16.5 points

Diana Taurasi Over 2.5 threes

+320 at FanDuel

In the last month, no team has given up more 3-point looks per game than the Mystics, with opponents taking 25.8 shots from beyond the arc each night. The only saving grace for Washington is that opponents make just 35.7% of them, the fourth-highest rate in the WNBA.

No one on the Mercury roster takes more threes per night than Taurasi, shooting 6.4 times from deep in the last month, making 2.4 of them. That combination should spur Taurasi past her points prop, almost entirely because of the Mystics’ lackluster defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mercury vs Mystics odds

Mercury vs Mystics live odds

Get the latest Mercury vs Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.

Mercury vs Mystics opening odds

• Spread: Phoenix -3.5 | Washington +3.5
• Moneyline: Phoenix -170 | Washington +138
• Over/Under: Over 169.5 | Under 169.5

Mercury vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mercury opened as 3.5-point favorites late on Sunday, a number that jumped to -4.5 within 12 hours.
  
  
• Both Phoenix and Washington played at Indiana in the last week. The Mercury were 2-point underdogs, while the Mystics were 7-point underdogs, offering logic to this spread yet climbing to -5.
  
  
• This total opened at 169.5 late on Sunday and fell as low as 167.5 at some sportsbooks on Monday morning, most holding steady at 168.5.

Mercury vs Mystics trend

Phoenix’s last three games all went Over their totals by an average of 8.5 points. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Mystics.

Mercury vs Mystics game info

Mercury vs Mystics latest injuries

Mercury: No key injuries to report.
Mystics: Karlie Samuelson G (Out), Brittney Sykes G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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