Best WNBA Player Props Today: Gray Lacks Touch vs Lynx

Prop bet #1: Clark comes up short

Maybe WNBA teams have had the chance to thoroughly scout Caitlin Clark after 15 games. Maybe fatigue has caught up to her, particularly since the WNBA season began less than five weeks after her college career ended.

Whatever the cause, Clark is no longer putting up eye-popping stat lines for the Indiana Fever. In her last six games, she has averaged 13.3 points while shooting just 39.4% from the field.

She has gone off twice, including scoring 30 against these same Washington Mystics on June 7, largely by going 7-for-13 from deep. That was an anomaly in multiple regards.

In her other five games in June, Clark has shot 9 of 34 (26.5%) from deep. Compare that to her early showings where she was not setting the earth afire but did go 24 of 75 (32%) in her first nine games, clearing this prop in five of them.

Secondly, Washington does not generally give up a bevy of open looks from deep. The Mystics rank No. 8 in the WNBA in 3-pointers attempted against per game, and opponents make only 33.6% of them, perfectly middling.

Clark exploding two weeks ago was unlike both her of late and Washington all season. Betting against a repeat performance should yield value.

Caitlin Clark prop: Under 2.5 made 3s (+118 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Gray goes quiet

Atlanta Dream guard Allisha Gray has hit 45.8% of her 3-pointers this year, making 2.3 per game to buttress her 15.8 points per game. On the surface, doubting her to clear 15.5 points is hardly a value proposition.

But look at who defends the worst in the WNBA from deep. The Las Vegas Aces are in the Bottom 2 in both 3-pointers attempted against and in the rate those shots are made. By no coincidence, Gray went 6-for-7 from beyond the arc against the Aces to score 24 points. Remove that game and her season averages fall to 1.9 made 3s per game on 39.6% shooting while scoring 15.1 points in 11 games.

Remove her games against the rest of the Bottom 3 in 3-point percentage against and Gray’s rate falls to 36.6%.

Gray is playing well, but she is playing great against only porous defenses. The Minnesota Lynx do not have a porous defense. They have the second-best defensive rating in the league and, more pertinently, hold opponents to 28.6% from deep, the best mark in the WNBA.

This is the kind of defense that will stifle Gray’s looks from deep and, with them, her overall output.

Allisha Gray prop: Under 15.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Wilson resumes her onslaught

After topping this points prop in eight straight games, Las Vegas Aces center A’ja Wilson scored just 21 points in a Saturday loss to the New York Liberty. Falling short against the Liberty should not be seen as a precursor of a coming drop-off.

New York kept Wilson off the free throw line, where she went only 3 of 4 after averaging 8.75 free-throw attempts in her previous eight games. That should not have been surprising; the Liberty give up the fewest free throws per game in the WNBA and not by a little.

The Seattle Storm give up four free throws more per game. That alone should suggest Wilson will return to her march in the WNBA MVP odds.

An eight-game sample size of scoring at least 28 points in each game and averaging 30.25 should carry much more heft than a one-game fall-off against the most motivated team in the WNBA.

A'ja Wilson prop: Over 26.5 points (-128 at FanDuel)