DogbiteWilliams

Everybody's life features ups and downs.  This guy had two extremes on the same day.

Maybe he'll get drafted by the Army.

In favor of the LAC at +275:

2024 regular season net points

KC   +59

LAC  +101

However, per Jeff Sagarin the LAC were only 1-4 SU vs. his Top Ten while playing the #29th ranked Strength of Schedule.

I am a Los Angeles resident, so I certainly hope that the Chargers finish ahead of the Chiefs.  Good luck with your season futures, spottie.

GREAT info.  Thanks.

Yet another reason to fade KC this year.

TC's Comment #6 looks pretty sharp.  OKC CLE and BOS all won and covered in their series openers.

Good luck, TC.

Nice research.  Thanks for the time and effort.

However, I suggest a cautious approach to the upcoming season which could very well favor the dogs.

I just queried for HF's alone.  Here are the ATS results by season and %:

2013 --- 55.2

2014 --- 49.2

2015 --- 42.8

2016 --- 52.3

2017 --- 53.7

2018 --- 43.8

2019 --- 44.2

2020 --- 44.8

2021 --- 46.6

2022 --- 45.9

2023 --- 52.1

2024 --- 52.7

It's easy to see that one or two seasons of HF's covering more than 50% can easily be followed by down seasons.

Maybe we'll finally have a fairly balanced season where HF's cover 49%-51% of the games.  They have been pretty rare.

Apparently there is some glitch.

[Quote: Originally Posted by jowchoo].....season>=2024 and 3DP-o:3DP>15 and H and week>2 and -13.5

Hoody, something is still missing.  You may have to type it in.

Hoody, I think something is missing from the last parameter.

I'll try that again:

season > 2015 and p:PY>op:PY and p:RY<op:RY and D and on:F and p:W and week>2 and total<48

ATS:  26-53-2 (-5.0,32.9%)

The query in Post #292 looks promising because it is not just a one-season fluke:

p:PY>op:PY and p:RY

ATS:  26-53-2 (-5.0,32.9%)

Thanks for posting.

p:points < 9.5 and HF and WP > 65

SU:  74-23 (10.2,76.3%)

ATS:   57-37-3 (3.9,60.6%)  avg line -6.48

This query is unusually interesting because it's better to lay MORE points:

and line > -8.2    ATS:   40-31-3 (3.6,56.3%)

and line < -8.2    ATS:   17-6 (4.6,73.9%)    Unfortunately, this only has had two plays since the 2011 season.
 

Good to hear.

@jowchoo

Your take might well work.  60% on over 1000 plays would be quite rewarding.

From Post #229:

season=2024 and oA(margin)

While 22-5 is excellent, season 2024 can only be described as an outlier.  Seasons 2017-2023 were ALL losing seasons.

oA(margin)

ATS:  58-82-7 (-3.4,41.4%) 

I screwed up.  Reject this BS - o:INT = 0 is a CURRENT parameter.  I made a rookie mistake; shame on me.

Reject the query in Post #214 for the same reason.