David Benavidez faces off against two-division champion Demetrius Andrade in a clash of unbeaten fighters this Saturday, November 25, from The Michelob Ultra Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
No titles are on the line, but instead, the winner of this fight figures to be next in line to challenge Saul “Canelo” Alvarez for the undisputed super middleweight titles in 2024.
Boxing odds have Benavidez a comfortable -380, while Andrade is a +275 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Saturday's Benavidez vs. Andrade bout from Paradise, Las Vegas.
David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade odds
| Method of victory | David Benavidez | Demetrius Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -390 | +290 |
| Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +140 | +900 |
| Win by points or decision | +140 | +500 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of November 25, 2023.
David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade betting predictions
Picks made on November 22. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade betting preview
David Benavidez possesses an impressive 85% knockout rate and has stopped four of his last five opponents. Aside from Plant, Benavidez has wins over Anthony Dirrell, Kyrone Davis, and David Lemieux.
Demetrius Andrade has won vacant titles at junior middleweight and middleweight, successfully defending them multiple times while biding his time for a marquee matchup. The slick boxer maintains an undefeated record and continues his pursuit of a significant bout. Noteworthy victories in his resume include triumphs over Martirosyan, Alantez Fox, Luke Keeley, and Jason Quigley.
The strategy for Benavidez will be to limit Andrade's movement by pressuring him into the ropes and firing frequent body shots, and at the same time, making sure his hands aren't too low against the counter-minded boxer.
Andrade must disrupt Benavidez's activity and limit his punching output, primarily with strategic cliches and keeping him mindful of counter shots. This will be Andrade's second fight at super middleweight.
David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Benavidez ML
There has been a lot of effort in trying to sell this fight as a potentially competitive or compelling matchup. Benavidez has frequently tested himself against the best at 168 pounds — winning a title on multiple occasions — and is seen by many as a legitimate threat to Alvarez.
Andrade is an overachiever whose career is defined by his failure to leverage his undefeated record for a payday and is only now facing the first former world champion of his career at the age of 35.
Benavidez is an aggressive fighter with significant power and underrated boxing skills. We saw in his last fight against Caleb Plant that he was patient and tactical, breaking down an opponent who tried to box him and used a style intended to disrupt his rhythm. While Plant had his moments, Benavidez figured him out and began to batter him for the rest of the fight.
It's been 11 long years since he had that split-decision victory over Vanes Martirosyan, which remains the biggest win of his career. Afterward, it's been a carefully guided path, match after match. Both of his world title wins came in bouts where the title was vacant. In a fight of this capacity, you need that grit, that mental toughness. I'm just not sure if Andrade is fully prepared for what's coming his way.
Andrade is an overly conservative boxer and doesn’t take any chances, mostly because he’s feasted on lower-level opposition throughout his career. No longer in his prime and lacking the adversity and demonstration of resolve expected of the true elite, Andrade is going into uncharted territory against an opponent who is in his prime.
Benavidez has shown impressive skills, power, and a relentless style that could pose significant challenges for Andrade, and I’m confident he’ll pull off the win here.
Prediction: Benavidez moneyline (-380 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Benavidez by KO/TKO/DQ (+140)
Andrade's calculated, conservative style may grant him a foothold in the early rounds, strategically navigating toward the middle of the bout. However, it raises the question about his ability to weather the storm of Benavidez's relentless aggression. Plant’s lack of punching power and stamina made him a sitting duck in the second half of the fight, where he absorbed a tremendous amount of punishment. While Plant showed heart, we’ve yet to see that in Andrade.
There's an air of uncertainty surrounding Andrade's performance on this grand stage. In contrast, Benavidez carries a proven track record, leaving no room for such concerns. With his relentless pressure and superior punching power, Benavidez is likely to deny Andrade the comfortable distance he needs to execute his strategy safely.
The combination of Benavidez's volume and effective body punching should further constrain Andrade's output. Unless Andrade chooses to quietly concede or attempts to mask his constant retreat as "smart boxing," it appears Benavidez is poised to walk him down.
My best bet is that this fight looks similar to the Plant fight, wherein Benavidez begins to break Andrade down in the middle rounds before stopping him late. I’m taking Benavidez by TKO.
Prediction: Benavidez to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+140 at DraftKings)
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