Naoya Inoue vs. Paul Butler is scheduled for 12 rounds for the undisputed bantamweight championship. Their bout takes place on Tuesday, December 13 from the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan.
This bout figures to crown the first undisputed bantamweight champion since Rafael Herrera in 1972.
Boxing odds overwhelmingly favor Inoue at an insurmountable -8,000. Two-time champion Butler is a +1,300 betting underdog.
Here are our boxing picks and predictions for Inoue vs. Butler from Tokyo.
Naoya Inoue vs Paul Butler odds
| Method of victory | Naoya Inoue | Paul Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -8,000 | +1,300 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -2,500 | +2,200 |
| Win by points or decision | +850 | +2,800 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of December 9, 2022.
Naoya Inoue vs Paul Butler betting predictions
Picks made on December 13. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Naoya Inoue vs Paul Butler betting preview
Inoue already ranks among boxing’s pound-for-pound best, and should he win as expected, will begin the transition from “Monster” to “Legend.” Undisputed title fights are rare nowadays and are often romanticized as being brutal wars leaving one man standing above all — but the odds indicate nothing of the sort. Butler may be a two-time champion, but he’s seen as a man without a prayer.
Japan’s Inoue has stormed through three divisions with a record of 23 wins with 20 knockouts. Just six months ago, Inoue ran it back against Nonito Donaire, who had previously given him the toughest fight of his career to stop him in four painful rounds. He has been a champion since his sixth professional fight and has notable wins over Donaire, Omar Narvaez, and former Butler conqueror Emmanuel Rodriguez.
With a frightening combination of power and technical skill, Inoue is every bit deserving of the “Monster” moniker. What makes Inoue unique is that there isn’t just a special punch, target, or particular pattern he follows. He can make adjustments, counter, and fire pinpoint shots at maximum strength to the head and body to end a fight. Throughout his career, his average fight time is 5.5 rounds.
It doesn’t sound like Butler has a chance, but respect should be given to the Cheshire native, who is a solid champion in his own right. The well-schooled Butler became a champion once more winning the vacant WBO title from Jonas Sultan last April after previously reigning briefly over bantamweight in 2014. With a strong technique opting to play the long game, Butler will take a cerebral approach to make history.
Butler is undefeated since a 2018 points loss to Rodriguez in a failed attempt to win the bantamweight title. He’s kept busy and stayed in shape to better maintain his rankings for a title shot, accepting that Inoue was coming for him sooner or later. If an undersized, aged Donaire could stretch Inoue out, so too can the boxing-minded Butler if he can keep on his toes.
Eventually, something has to give when it comes to Inoue’s prime. At just 29, it’s unlikely that he’ll be outgunned unless he continues to climb up in weight. Butler’s chances seem remote at best, and the odds seem to reflect that, but bigger upsets have happened.
Naoya Inoue vs Paul Butler boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Inoue moneyline (-8,000)
The reason why Butler isn’t seen as a credible threat to Inoue is due to the paltry opposition he’s faced. There is no reason why someone like Butler is fighting in six-rounders this late in his career, particularly for most of the last four years. Following Butler’s title win in 2014, he vacated the title because he felt he wasn’t big enough to remain competitive at bantamweight.
That isn’t going to cut the mustard here. Inoue is a smart offensive fighter who uses pressure, angles, and a complete attack to generate openings and do damage. While Inoue is in his third weight class, he doesn’t look like he’s losing any steam and has tested himself against some of the best fighters in the lower divisions.
This fight is expected to be as lopsided as the 1969 short Bambi Meets Godzilla, with Inoue coming out with all the belts.
Prediction: Inoue moneyline (-8,000 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Inoue To Win In Rounds 1-6 (-650)
While Inoue will stop Butler, there’s a feeling he isn’t going to stop him as early as many believe. Butler has a decent chin and good instincts, so while he should get out of the opening stages of the fight, it’s best to believe he won’t make it past the halfway point.
Taking Inoue to close up shop between the first and sixth rounds will score -650, and that’s as good as it is going to get to find value here.
Prediction: Inoue To Win In Rounds 1-6 (-650 at DraftKings)
